11 burning questions for the second half of the 2024 F1 season

The second half of the 2024 Formula 1 season is here.

The first half was filled with twists and turns that we did not see coming, such as Lando Norris’ first win, Charles Leclerc finally tasting victory at home, and a Mercedes back-to-back to close out the first half.

Could the second half of the season have even more twists and turns?

Here are the 11 burning questions that will be answered over the second half of the 2024 F1 campaign.

Will Sauber get on the board?

The last time an F1 team was points-less at the break? That came back in 2021 when Haas reached the halfway point of the year without either Nikita Mazepin or Mick Schumacher scoring a single point.

Unfortunately for Haas, they ended the year in the same fashion, as neither driver was able to crack the top ten at all that season.

That was 2021. Now? Sauber is facing that same situation. However, while both Mazepin and Schumacher were rookies that year, Sauber has two experienced drivers in Valtteri Bottas and Zhou Gunayu.

And still, not a single point to show for their efforts so far.

Their best result so far came back in the season-opening Bahrain Grand Prix, when Zhou finished in P11. However, the early part of the campaign for Sauber was marked by problems in the pits, as they endured cross-threading of their wheel nuts, leading to lengthy stops:

While the team made the requisite upgrades to improve in the pits, as noted above, they still lack sufficient pace to consistently challenge for points. Silverstone was yet another example of the deficit they face. “This race confirms that we lack pace, and we were unfortunately not able to reach any of the targets we had set for ourselves before the weekend,” said Sauber Team Representative Alessandro Alunni Bravi following the British Grand Prix.

Sauber has committed to bringing the upgrades they need to challenge for the top ten over the second half of the season. “We need to make a step forward, and this is why we need to keep working hard to address our weaknesses through a continued and

committed program of development, starting already from the next rounds,” added Bravi following the British Grand Prix.

Will that program be enough for Sauber to avoid the dreaded goose egg?

Can Haas catch VCARB?

The fight at the sharp end of the grid will be the battle that captures the attention of the F1 world over these next few months.

But that is not the only fight worth keeping an eye on, as well as writing about.

A fascinating battle is shaping up between Visa Cash App RB F1 Team and Haas for sixth, and that fight has tightened in recent weeks. When the F1 tripleheader began just a few weeks ago, VCARB enjoyed a 28-7 advantage over Haas in the Constructors’ Championship standings, thanks to an eighth-place finish (and the corresponding four points from that result) from Daniel Ricciardo at the Canadian Grand Prix.

However, while both teams were shut out at the Spanish Grand Prix, a pair of P6 results from Nico Hülkenberg at both Red Bull Ring and Silverstone banked 16 massive points for Haas. While Yuki Tsunoda got VCARB on the board at the British Grand Prix with a tenth-place finish, and Ricciardo added two more points in Austria, Haas is now just four points behind VCARB, with the margin 31-27:

Who will emerge victorious in this battle is another huge storyline to track over the second half of the F1 campaign.

Along with who will be driving for VCARB down the stretch, but we will address that bullet point shortly.

Can Ferrari turn things around?

On the Sunday of the Monaco Grand Prix, Charles Leclerc was finally able to stand on the top step at his home race. After years of heartbreak and close calls, the Ferrari driver could finally enjoy the podium celebration after conquering the streets where he learned to drive.

And on that Sunday, Ferrari was just steps behind Red Bull.

Leclerc’s victory, coupled with a podium finish for Carlos Sainz Jr., pulled the Scuderia to just 24 points of Red Bull atop the Constructors’ Championship standings. It was the closest the team had been to Red Bull since after the Australian Grand Prix when an early-lap failure sidelined Max Verstappen, opening the door for Sainz to storm back from an appendectomy and capture the victory.

Since Leclerc’s hometown triumph, however, Ferrari has faltered. Leclerc has managed just 12 points since Monaco, and while Sainz has performed better — including a podium finish in the Austrian Grand Prix — as a team Ferrari has added 50 points since that day in Monaco.

Not only has that allowed Red Bull to extend their current lead over Ferrari to 71 points, but now McLaren is hot on Ferrari’s heels. While the Woking-based outfit left Monaco 68 points behind Ferrari, McLaren is now just seven points behind.

And they are closing fast.

Can Ferrari find their form over the second half of the season, or will McLaren — and potential Mercedes — catch them before all is said and done?

Who else can breakthrough with a win?

Six different drivers — Max Verstappen, Carlos Sainz Jr., Lando Norris, Charles Leclerc, George Russell, and Lewis Hamilton — have tasted victory already this season.

Will anyone else join that list over the final 12 race weekends?

The top contender on the list of potential race winners begins with Oscar Piastri. Not only is the MCL38 one of the top cars on the grid this season, but Piastri has put himself in contention multiple times this campaign, with a pair of P2 finishes. He started second for the Monaco Grand Prix and finished there, and as he told me in the days after the race, he did have a moment where he could have caught Leclerc in front of him, but there was just not enough room on the tight Monte Carlo streets.

Still, Piastri believes that McLaren has improved their car this season, including working out some of the “weaknesses” they had a year ago.

“I feel like this year we’ve definitely tightened up some of the weaknesses,” said Piastri to me in May.

“I feel like other teams are caught up on our strengths. But we’ve definitely caught up on our weaknesses as well. So I think for me that’s a really encouraging sign,” continued the McLaren driver. “And the fact that we’re not too far behind in the Constructors’ Championship at the moment is encouraging to see what we can try and do for the rest of the year.”

It does feel like Piastri’s first Grand Prix victory is a matter of time.

Then there is Sergio Pérez, who has a trio of P2 finishes of his own. But those came much earlier in the year, and as we will discuss in a moment the Red Bull driver is under substantial pressure as the second half of the season begins.

But Pérez is still one of the seven drivers over the past year-plus in F1 to win a Grand Prix, and while the RB20 is not the dominant force last year’s RB19 was, it is still one of the quicker cars on the grid.

Given how the first have of the season unfolded, we might see yet another winner before the year is through.

Will Sergio Pérez keep his seat?

Red Bull thought a new contract for Sergio Pérez would put to rest the continued speculation about his F1 future.

But here we are, two race weekends ahead of the summer shutdown, and there is renewed speculation about Pérez’s future at Red Bull.

As was the case a year ago, a mid-season slump from the driver — coupled with a tighter-than-anticipated title fight for Red Bull — has kicked those rumors into gear. Pérez has scored just 15 points since the Miami Grand Prix, the lowest total among the eight drivers from the top four constructors.

Over that period Carlos Sainz Jr., who is seventh on that list, has scored 52 points. Nico Hülkenberg from Haas has scored 16.

It is a string of performances that Red Bull Team Principal Christian Horner called “unsustainable” following the British Grand Prix.

Pérez went through a similar tough stretch a season ago, but while it led to speculation about his Red Bull future, the fact that Verstappen was so dominant meant that it was not an immediate concern. But with Ferrari, McLaren, and now Mercedes nipping at Red Bull’s heels, the longer this swoon persists for Pérez, the more likely it is a team catches Red Bull at the front of the field.

These next two weeks are critical for Pérez because if we get to the summer shutdown and one of Red Bull’s rivals has closed the gap even further, the team might look to solidify their championship hopes by making a change.

How does the rest of the driver market shake out?

Whether Sergio Pérez keeps his spot at Red Bull over the second half of the season is just one of the questions facing the driver market.

But with six spots left to be confirmed for next year, there are still some drivers waiting to finalize their plans for the 2025 F1 campaign.

Carlos Sainz Jr. tops that list, as the current Ferrari driver needs a new home when Lewis Hamilton arrives next year. Sainz has been linked with several teams in recent weeks, including Williams, Sauber, and most recently Alpine, and is likely the major domino left to fall.

Once Sainz makes his decision — which could come at any time — the rest of the driver lineup likely falls into place.

Beyond Sainz’s choice, one of the other major pieces left to be decided is who will take Hamilton’s seat at Mercedes. Will it be the young phenom Andrea Kimi Antonelli, as many expect, or will Toto Wolff go down a different road with a veteran option? Has Mercedes’ recent turn of good form changed Wolff’s thinking in that matter, or solicited his decision?

Yes, there are tons of storylines to follow on the track, but with six seats left to be confirmed, there is plenty to follow off the track.

Where will Adrian Newey land?

On Saturday at the Goodwood Festival of Speed Adrian Newey, the legendary F1 designer and engineer, climbed into Niki Lauda’s 312T for a ride up the legendary Hill.

Was that just one moment over a weekend of motorsport, or something more?

When Newey announced ahead of the Miami Grand Prix that he would be leaving Red Bull in early 2025, it touched off breathless speculation regarding where he would land next. In the weeks since, Newey has been linked with a few different teams, including Aston Martin, Williams, and yes, Ferrari.

However, a new contender emerged recently, with reporting out of Italian media holding that McLaren could be in line for his services.

Why might this speculation, and eventual landing spot, matter? Because Newey will go into the history books as one of the sport’s most pivotal figures. The engineer has been part of 12 different Constructors’ Championships, as well as seven different Drivers’ Championships. Some of his designs have been dominant forces on the grid, including last year’s RB19.

And with Newey potentially arriving at his next stop in time to finalize the development of his new team’s 2026 challenger — the first under the upcoming set of regulation changes — that team could be in a very advantageous position as that year begins.

How high can Mercedes climb?

The hottest team over the last four race weekends?

Mercedes.

As we have pointed out before, upgrades to the W15 the team started rolling out at the Miami Grand Prix have not only begun to blossom, but they have absolutely borne fruit. The first sign was pole position for George Russell at the Canadian Grand Prix, and while he could not bring home the win Russell scored the team’s first Grand Prix podium of the season with a third-place finish in Montreal.

That was followed by a third-place finish from Lewis Hamilton at the Spanish Grand Prix, and while those were two welcome results for the team, the real progress came over the last two race weekends. Russell was in position to pounce when Max Verstappen and Lando Norris came together late in Austria, to take a win at the Austrian Grand Prix. While that victory came with a bit of luck, Hamilton’s win at Silverstone came on merit.

And over these past four weekends, Mercedes has brought home 125 points, the most of any team on the grid.

They still face a lengthy climb to the top of the grid. Not only do the Silver Arrows trail third-place McLaren by 74 points, but they trail Red Bull by 152 points.

This may be a case of “too little, too late” for Mercedes. But the Silver Arrows are at least back in the fight, and when you think about every great comeback story in sports, getting back in the fight is usually the first step.

Can anyone catch Max Verstappen?

At the moment, Max Verstappen enjoys an 84-point lead over Lando Norris in the F1 Drivers’ Championship.

Is another title for Verstappen a formality at this point? Probably not. F1 has seen comebacks before, with perhaps the most famous coming in 2012 when Sebastian Vettel came back from 39 points down over the final seven races to win his third straight title.

But 84 points? That is a huge advantage for Verstappen.

Consider the 2022 season. Following the Austrian Grand Prix, the 11th race of the season, Verstappen was just 38 points clear of Charles Leclerc with 11 race weekends to go.

He finished 146 points ahead of Leclerc that season.

What might be different this year? That gap in 2022 had a lot to do with Ferrari’s struggles down the stretch. While Leclerc took home P1 at the Austrian Grand Prix for his third race win of the 2022 season, it would also be his last win of the year. Verstappen won nine of the final 11 races to pull away as the season wound down, and while Mercedes came on late that year, their eyes were on P2, and not Red Bull at the front.

This year, however, is different. As noted earlier six drivers have already won this year, and as we saw at the British Grand Prix sometimes even when Red Bull gets everything right with Verstappen, as they did at Silverstone with several strategy calls, the day ends with him not on the top step of the podium.

So while he remains the prohibitive favorite, this fight is not yet over.

Can Red Bull hold on?

While Verstappen looks like the clear favorite in the Drivers’ Championship, the Constructors’ Championship is a different story.

A year ago, Verstappen’s dominance was enough to power Red Bull to their second-straight title. But as we have discussed throughout this piece, 2024 is a different story. Red Bull needs both Verstappen and Pérez to perform at a high level to win their third title in three years, and right now they are not getting that level of performance from Pérez.

As a result Ferrari, McLaren, and now Mercedes are inching closer to Red Bull at the sharp end of the grid.

Here is where those four teams stand ahead of the second half of the season.

Standings at the halfway point (12 races) this year:

Red Bull: 373
Ferrari: 302
McLaren: 295
Mercedes: 221

At the halfway point a year ago, how did things stand?

Standings at the halfway point (11 races) last year:

Red Bull: 452
Mercedes: 223
Aston Martin: 184
Ferrari: 167
McLaren: 87

This year teams can put pressure on Red Bull, and it is changing things at the front of the grid. Add to that Pérez’s struggles, and you can see how the game is changing this year. Consider the Canadian Grand Prix. Verstappen won, bringing home 25 points for Red Bull, but with Pérez finishing outside the points, those were the only points Red Bull earned in the Constructors’ Championship fight. So you might consider that a great weekend for Verstappen, and an average one for Red Bull.

Meanwhile, McLaren saw Lando Norris finish second, and Oscar Piastri fifth, for 28 points. They outscored Red Bull and pulled three points closer to them at the top.

As for Mercedes, they also scored 28 points, thanks to a P3 for George Russell, a P4 for Lewis Hamilton, and a bonus point for Hamilton for posting the fastest lap.

Now, one race does not a season make, but the Canadian Grand Prix illustrates what Red Bull is facing right now: A tighter field at the front of the grid, and three rivals that can chip away at their lead.

What could help Red Bull down the stretch is the fact that those three rivals may end up splitting the points available, enough that not one of them emerges to truly take the fight to Red Bull.

But right now, it does look like a title fight is shaping up.