In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Alpecin dominating the Classics, as talent concentrates in a handful of teams, more discussion on budget caps, Olympic question marks and Vollering’s contract…
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Key Takeaways:
- Alpecin-Deceuninck Dominating the Classics
- Top Talent Concentrates in Three Teams …
- … Leading to More Discussion About Budget Caps
- Continuing Questions About the Olympics
- Vollering Contract Questions
Lidl-Trek’s Elisa Longo Borghini upsetting the juggernaut SD-Worx team
Belgium’s biggest sports weekend – the Tour of Flanders – wrapped up on Sunday with Lidl-Trek’s Elisa Longo Borghini upsetting the juggernaut SD-Worx team in the women’s race, and Mathieu van der Poel solidifying his place as one of history’s best cobbled racers by winning his third Flanders title in five years. The long-range solo attack netted MvdP his fifth consecutive podium finish, after being one of the only riders to ascend a nearly unrideable Koppenberg without walking. A quick glance at the results may lead people to believe this was another relatively straight-forward brute force win for Van der Poel. However, a full watching of the race shows that he was aggressively pressed early on by Visma-Lease a Bike and Lidl-Trek, and only cool-headed riding from both him and his Alpecin-Deceuninck teammates during those earlier critical moments kept the situation from spiraling out of control. Van der Poel appeared to bonk slightly in the final 10 kilometers, which he confirmed in the post-race interview, saying this was the hardest race of his career – and he was clearly exhausted to the point of delirium. The fact that this was the fastest race in Flanders history tells us just how deep Van der Poel had to go in order to tie the all-time record for career Flanders titles, and he now matches Tadej Pogačar for the most monument wins (five) amongst active riders. Nonetheless, Van der Poel appeared mortal in the finale, which makes us wonder what might have happened had an historic three-way battle occurred with the only two other riders capable of matching Van der Poel during these moves – the absent defending champion Pogačar and the injured Wout van Aert.
Mathieu van der Poel – The hardest race of his career
The women’s edition of Flanders was a complete tactical contrast to the men’s race, and while both events were shaped by the Koppenberg, astute positioning and attacks by the top teams throughout the day made it a “race of the year” nominee. The finale was sparked by the WWT’s youth movement; Shirin van Anrooij (Lidl-Trek) and Puck Pieterse (Alpecin-Fenix) attacked over the Patersberg, with Elisa Longo Borghini (Lidl-Trek) bridging up with Kasia Niewiadoma (Canyon-SRAM) to form an elite finishing trio after Pieterse faded. Longo Borghini’s sprint win solidified Lidl-Trek’s reputation as the team to beat in the 2024 Classics campaign, but all eyes will be on SD Worx-Protime for next weekend’s Paris-Roubaix. Observers pointed out that the team seemed out of synch as it missed the break, with reigning world champion Lotte Kopecky losing the front group on the treacherous Koppenberg and Demi Vollering off the pace. Can the dynamic duo overcome team politics (discussed below) to dominate once again?
Katarzyna Niewiadoma (Canyon//SRAM) and Elisa Longo Borghini Elisa (Lidl-Trek) – Where was SD Worx-Protime?
Somewhat lost in the excitement and awe around Van der Poel’s accomplishments is the fact that his mid-budget Alpecin-Deceuninck team is dominating the sport’s preeminent one-day Classics – demonstrated by the fact that they have won the first two monuments of the 2024 season, with two different riders, knocking off the rival Soudal-Quick-Step team. In fact, if we examine it from a broader perspective, it seems that success in the Classics is now restricted to just a small handful of teams, and an even smaller handful of riders within those teams. Over the past 24 months, only four riders (Van der Poel, Pogačar, Remco Evenepoel, and Jasper Philipsen), spread over three teams, have won all the monuments, while the last rider not from these three teams to win a monument – Dylan van Baarle at the 2022 Paris-Roubaix – has since joined Visma (which has won four out of the last five Grand Tours). This trend of increasingly dominant elite teams and riders will likely continue, and it seems unlikely that anyone other than the big six (Van der Poel, Evenepoel, Pogačar, Van Aert, Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard) will challenge for victory in major one-day races or grand tours the rest of this year. This will undoubtedly renew the debate about the need for budget or salary caps, as discussed below.
Matteo Jorgenson – Hopes for a monumental American victory
Hopes for a monumental American victory at the Tour of Flanders were dashed after Visma-LAB’s Matteo Jorgenson cracked and faded dramatically late at Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. However, young Americans nonetheless turned in strong performances, as 21-year-old Magnus Sheffield finished 6th and 23-year-old Riley Sheehan, riding in his first career monument, finished 13th. Sheehan’s result is even more impressive when we consider that just a year ago, he was racing pro-am events in the U.S., and only joined his Israel-Premier Tech team late in 2023 after impressing as a stagiaire. The two young Americans who finished in the top ten at Flanders last year – Jorgenson and Neilson Powless – failed to match those performances this year. However, the fact that two others stepped up to fill their places highlights just how far American cycling has come in the last few years, even as the domestic race scene continues to collapse.
Riley Sheehan was impressive
The IOC has faced extreme pressures in the current Olympic cycle, and although the Paris Games are seemingly back on schedule and on budget, the Games’ economic model is giving future hosts pause regarding investment commitments. Furthermore, its stance regarding Russian participation is polarizing international opinion and renewing calls for boycotts. News broke recently that Brisbane, which will host the 2032 summer edition, will avoid construction of new stadiums in favor of reconditioning and improving existing venues and transportation infrastructure. With so many recent host cities seeing losses due to unnecessary stadium and infrastructure spending, such as Athens and Rio, it’s no surprise that politicians and even advocates for the Olympics are starting to say the quiet part aloud: the Olympics are expensive, generally unprofitable, and unsustainable, particularly at a time when nations need to be spending on other social service and infrastructure priorities.
The Rio velodrome
Russia is a different problem for the IOC’s president, Thomas Bach: he previously left the door open for athletes of nations at war or involved in regional conflicts to participate at the Games under a neutral flag after a “vetting process.” Considering the case of Russia, already sanctioned for its rampant state-sponsored doping program at the Sochi games, it seems incredulous – in light of its aggressor role in the invasion of Ukraine – that its athletes will still participate in Paris. However, Bach changed his tune recently when Russia announced it will organize and host a new international sporting competition to be called, ironically, the Friendship Games just a few weeks after the Paris Games conclude. In addressing the development, the IOC accused Russia and its allies of politicizing sport, which is what Bach had been accused of when he eased his stance on Russian athlete participation in the Paris Games. We would argue – as have many other Olympic observers – that Bach’s rediscovered spine for holding Russia accountable and going so far as to ban its athletes from the opening ceremonies, is more about the financial challenge from a rival competition than any political power the IOC could gain with Russian influence. Between the impractical costs, political posturing, and the Friendship Games (and potentially the Enhanced Games) stealing some economic thunder, is it time to rethink the Olympics altogether?
Cycling’s big earners
The UCI’s most recent Professional Cycling Council (PCC) session concluded with the usual upbeat PR platitudes on a variety of initiatives – save for the topic which will likely generate heated debate and actually has the potential to reshape the sport: budget caps. By budget caps, we are actually talking about a spectrum of funding, spending, and talent investment governance guardrails. Enactment of these sorts of guidelines or regulations will require more than just an edict from an international sporting federation boardroom; there are significant legal and organizational hurdles required in the attempt to prevent team owners – and their deep-pocketed sponsors – from dominating the sport at the expense of lesser-capitalized teams. In our 2021 deep-dive into this topic, we examined a host of strategies which have been successfully applied in other sports, including oft-cited luxury tax distribution models, and a more recent riff by the Inner Ring encapsulated many of the financial ambiguities that will complicate any plan the UCI puts into motion – inflationary concerns, currency disparities, and multi-level/multi-source contracts which benefit star riders like van der Poel (paid by Canyon bikes and his team simultaneously).
Van de Poel and Canyon – Long contract
Given the fact that teams and sponsors are changing all the time, there will certainly be legal and logistical challenges to enforce any kind of consistency in a pro cycling budget cap model of any kind. It could create a barrier for new sponsors to participate in the sport at all. Furthermore, women’s pro cycling has an entirely different set of concerns regarding investment and salaries (or lack thereof). As the sport inches towards 2026 and the proposed cap implementation, we wonder if this will drive reforms and stronger covenants among the top teams in the AIGCP, or push the riders associations – chiefly the CPA – to pivot from weak “joint agreements” and instead seek collective bargaining benchmarks to preserve the rights of riders?
Where the money is
Regarding women’s pro cycling investment and salaries, the WWT’s first real superstar contract impasse hit SDWorx-Protime when it was revealed that Demi Vollering could not reach an extension agreement with the team for 2024. Vollering, who dominated the 2023 season with 17 wins including the upcoming Ardennes week (Amstel, Liege, and Fleche-Wallonne), is apparently free to negotiate with other teams. SD Worx has traditionally been one of women’s pro cycling’s biggest spenders, but Vollering and her entourage were apparently taken aback by statements made by the team’s management about the situation, with the tone and phrasing insinuating that Vollering is either difficult to work with, or not worth the high price relative to Kopecky’s growing palmares, or both. Vollering will likely be a highly sought after asset – to either bolster a top team or become the cornerstone for an up-and-coming WWT squad – and continue to be one of the sport’s brightest stars.
Will Vollering change team?
And on that topic, the state of women’s pro cycling continues to be in flux as the sport grows rapidly, but perhaps too fast for some. As reported by our friends at Wielerflits, the founder and now former owner of the AG Insurance-Soudal women’s team has resigned her post and sold her shares of the team to its title sponsor, citing that the team’s commercial focus has overshadowed its developmental mission. Similarly, placement of the Tour de France Femmes start date – literally overnight after key Paris Olympic cycling events – has created a seemingly unnecessary and avoidable stressor that could derail valuable momentum. We invite you to read more at Wielerflits.nl (use of Google’s Translate web browser plug-in or similar feature recommended).
Natascha Knaven-den Ouden sold he share in the team
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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