Jonas Vingegaard is undoubtedly the man to beat when discussing the Tour de France. The Dane won the 2022 Tour de France before returning a year later to defend his crown. In 2024, Vingegaard was looking to make it a hat trick of successes, but his participation is now in serious doubt following a crash.
Vingegaard, 27, was the favourite to win the 2024 Tour de France according to any well known sports betting site. You can see why betting sites, experts, pundits, and the cycling community felt the same way after back-to-back wins in the race. But the Tour de Basque race didn’t go to plan, with the Visma-Lease a Bike rider fracturing ribs, his collarbone and sustaining a collapsed lung, meaning he’s certainly an unlikely winner of this year’s Tour de France, and that’s even if he makes the starting point.
Vingegaard’s team posted on X, formerly Twitter, to confirm that their rider and the reigning Tour de France champion had undergone a “successful operation” and that he would “spend the next few weeks recovering.” They went on to suggest that his recovery time, at present, is unknown, which has led to many being of the belief that Vingegaard won’t be fully recovered in time for June 29 when the Tour de France gets underway. It would be a major blow to Vingegaard but also to Visma-Lease a Bike too, whose other star rider, Wout van Aert, sustained similar injuries at Around Flanders last month.
In usual circumstances, the potential absence of the defending Tour de France champion heading would be a significant plus for the riders who are expected to mount a challenge of their own, but it’s not necessarily the case here, although there is good news for one rider. During the Tour de Basque, Remco Evenepoel also crashed out and broke his collarbone. While his injuries weren’t as severe as Vingegaard’s, they will undoubtedly hamper his preparations for the big race in a couple of months’ time.
Primoz Roglic, another Tour de France 2024 contender, was leading the same race but withdrew while in the lead after falling in the same crash. He could have stayed on to win the race, but his decision to retire could prove a masterstroke as his injuries weren’t too bad, and there were no fractures sustained. Ultimately, it means that of the riders fancied to be there or thereabouts in the Tour de France, Roglic has positioned himself well as arguably the best of the walking wounded.
Vingegaard, until it’s known that he won’t be riding in this year’s race, will still be the one to beat in the eyes of most, potentially so, even if he’s not 100%. But if the Dane is forced to withdraw, it really does open the door for the chasing pack, and it could be the most wide-open Tour de France for a long time. It will be hard to predict a winner, especially with the likelihood of several being less prepared than usual.
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