In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Whither One Cycling? The role of EY, early attacks and long solo wins, amateurism fading into the past? UCI flexing muscles on the calendar, the new USOPC report…
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Is Saudi money available for One Cycling?
Key Takeaways:
- One Cycling Beginning to Unravel?
- Asking Again: What is EY Up To?
- Early Attacking, and Long Solo Wins
- Amateurism a Thing of the Past?
- UCI Flexing Its Muscle on the Calendar
- What Can Cycling Learn from Caitlin Clark
ASO not interested in One Cycling
Few items around the pro cycling world have generated as much gossip and ink over the last several months as the One Cycling initiative, but news emerged this week that the project may be beginning to fray around the edges. There have been recent reports that an arm of the Saudi sovereign investment fund PIF was ready to make a substantial investment in the project – reported to be $270 million – and of secret meetings in London a few weeks ago coordinated by the international consultancy EY and attended by several pro teams. But there have been no formal statements or announcements from the entity itself, and according to L’Equipe, there are now several teams starting to question the financial basis of the project, or back out altogether. And with last week’s confirmation that ASO does not support the effort, it is now even harder to see how the loosely-defined project will be able to move forward successfully. The bottom line here – as we suggested several weeks ago – seems to be the lack of a clear means by which an outside investor could expect to receive an attractive rate of return on their investment. (It also seems shortsighted that the project does not include any component of women’s racing.)
No attractive rate of return on their investment
Speaking of PIF, the fund did invest in pro tennis this week, in an arrangement defined as “multi-year strategic partnership.” Concerns were immediately raised – by such notable tennis alumni as Martina Navratilova and Chris Evert – regarding continuous concerns around sportswashing and the Kingdom’s treatment of women. Nonetheless, the ATP Tour categorized the deal as “a shared commitment to propel the future of the sport,” saying “With PIF’s dedication to the next generation – fostering innovation and creating opportunities for all – the stage is set for a transformative new period of progress.” And PIF added, “This strategic partnership aligns with our broader vision to enhance quality of life and drive transformation in sport both within Saudi and across the world.” The PIF’s investment activities have spurred many diverse and polarizing opinions, and while it has maintained a consistent focus on sports entities and initiatives, it also appears that pro cycling is unlikely to join the sovereign fund’s portfolio.
The Glasgow Worlds: “they were an unprecedented success at every level” according to EY – despite going way over budget
It also seems an opportune time to again raise the question of what exactly the intentions of EY (formerly Ernst and Young) are in the cycling industry. The CyclingNews article suggested that EY was pushing the proposed One Cycling deal, in order to earn “a significant fee.” Not surprising; contingent success fees are a fairly standard business approach for most of these global consultancies, though some have been accused of worrying more about the size of the fee than the quality of the deal. We know that EY has already built a cozy relationship with the UCI, frequently producing glowing economic reports such as the recent study on the economic impact of the Glasgow world championships (which stated that “they were an unprecedented success at every level” – despite going way over budget). EY is also involved in the UCI’s process of monitoring and vetting the financial status and qualifications of registered professional racing teams. The firm clearly has an interest in building a bigger platform and visibility within the sport, and given UCI President Lappartient’s original and tacit support, it seems likely that EY may have come into the One Cycling project via that avenue. EY’s motivations are understandable in the “transform pro cycling, reap a big incentive fee” context. What is not so clear here is why a highly sophisticated firm like EY would not have helped the teams to lay out a more attractive and compelling business model to attract highly experienced investors like PIF, or why it would have allowed any of its activities to leak to the press before the deal signed. It will be interesting to dig into this question in more detail if the business plan or supporting documents ever come to light.
80 kilometres solo for Tadej Pogačar in Strade Bianche
The 2024 road cycling season is truly underway now – with the running of Strade Bianche and the kickoff of the simultaneous Paris-Nice and Tirreno–Adriatico stage races. The biggest event of the weekend was Tadej Pogačar’s long-range attack and win at Saturday’s Strade Bianche. Pogačar easily took his second win at Strade and – by breaking away with 81 kilometers to go – set a new record for the longest solo move in modern WorldTour history. He also sent a strong signal to his primary competitors that he is returning in 2024 in top condition. The women’s Strade Bianche was a much more competitive affair. While many have bemoaned the dominance of SDWorx-Protime, they had to have been delighted with the constant strategic attacking pattern of the other top teams and overall parity of the strongest riders on the challenging course. Lotte Kopecky of SD Worx fought hard for the win after attacking Elisa Longo Borghini (Lidl-Trek) over the final climb, but the closer spacing and team diversity among the chasers showed that the fitness level of the other top athletes is coming to peak at the right moment for the Classics.
Lotte Kopecky – Best in the woman’s Strade Bianche
The men’s race on Saturday underscores an interesting trend in modern racing – toward early attacking and solo race wins. For example, every one-day monument race in 2023 was won by solo attacks, and thus far the major one-day races of 2024 have also been defined by early attacks with hours of racing still remaining. One reason for this is likely due to advances in the science of nutrition which allow riders to intake massive amounts of carbohydrates easily over many hours – almost eliminating the threat of a dreaded late-race bonk. A potential byproduct of this trend will likely be a concentration of major one-day wins within a small number of ultra-elite riders – typically the “Big Six” that we often refer to. For example, since the start of the 2023 season, every one-day monument, the World Road Race Championships, and the recent edition of Strade have all been won by just three of those riders: Mathieu van der Poel, Pogačar or Remco Evenepoel.
Remco Evenepoel also likes to go for a long solo
Several recent developments suggest that the UCI may be starting to flex its regulatory muscles to enforce stronger control on the season-long racing calendar and narrative. For example, a few star road riders like Wout van Aert, Van der Poel, and Tom Pidcock have been dropping in to win big cyclocross races seemingly at will, while also skipping large portions of the calendar. This trend recently caused UCI president David Lappartient to go as far as to threaten to ban riders who skip the UCI’s Cyclocross World Cup events from competing at World Championships, and while the governing body’s recent press release outlining requirements didn’t quite go this far, it did require the first two rows of the starting grid to be reserved for riders with the most points in the overall cyclocross series. (This would incentivize riders to compete in as many World Cup events as possible in order to rack up more points.) The UCI has also unveiled its plan to define roughly 50% of the World Cup calendar as “protected events” – a status that, once bestowed, will enable the UCI to refuse official recognition for any other race that wants to take place the day before or the day of a “protected event.” Reading between the lines, it seems possible the UCI is planning to use this protected status on their more far-flung World Cup events to block top riders from opting out of contesting them and, instead, staying home and racing lucrative Superprestige races. Lappartient has also signaled that the UCI is prepared to make sweeping reforms to the road calendar in 2026. Taken together with the new moves in cyclocross, this could foreshadow the introduction of “protected” events – or even protected weekends/weeks – into the road calendar, in an effort to minimize the sport’s top riders from racing largely separate schedules through the season.
UCI wants to protect certain cyclo-cross events
The Commission on the State of U.S. Olympics and Paralympics published a long-awaited report last week which examined the history, current policies, governance issues, and breakdowns in athlete rights and agency oversight which have plagued Olympic sports in recent years. Among the many findings that were called out, serious operational and funding deficiencies for athlete safety and general under-funding of development programs that encourage equitable access to and participation in sports were highlighted. While the lack of public funds and usable facilities have an obvious effect on the number of athletes that can potentially be developed into world-class talent, lack of well-trained coaches who have access to athlete development resources also contribute to the deficits. More troubling is the near-disaster state of SafeSport, the agency created in the aftermath of the U.S. Gymnastics sexual abuse crisis. According to the Commission, SafeSport exceeded its operational capacity to investigate abuse claims in its first year and has an ever-growing backlog in which cases are unceremoniously closed for administrative reasons because they have exceeded the timeframe in which they can be adjudicated – facts which we called out in last week’s AIR edition.
The near-disaster state of SafeSport
Another of the report’s major recommendations was to eliminate the concept of “amateurism” from Olympic sports — and this completely aligned with the trend in high-profile challenges to NCAA sports in U.S. courts. A Federal judge issued an injunction which will likely strip the NCAA of any authority to govern the Name/Image/Likeness (NIL) market for collegiate athletes, in addition to an earlier ruling that allows college athletes to unionize and negotiate as a group with their institutions (and potentially entire collegiate conferences). As a result, the framework of “Olympism” is essentially being chipped away as athlete rights begin taking precedence over outdated notions of time-honored tradition. The NCAA has long held that it is the only arbiter for its amateur athletes, but in an era where college football media rights have gone up into the billions of dollars and forced conference realignments, raking in big profits at the expense of free laborers was never going to be sustainable.
The NCAA has long held that it is the only arbiter for its amateur athletes
While the majority of the athletes who benefit from the ruling are in team sports like basketball and football, the inclusion of track and field has given everyone pause to consider if Olympic sports might be next in line. Simply replace “NCAA” with “IOC” and the similarities of athlete exploitation become patently visible – the inability to self-market, to display personal sponsor logos within the competition site, the lack of commensurate remuneration in relation to broadcast viewership, and unionization restrictions. Now, the athletes may finally have momentum and legal footing to change the Games.
Olympics – Time-honored tradition
If anyone doubted the accelerating popularity and commodity of women’s sports, look no further than the ongoing basketball success story of Caitlin Clark. Now the NCAA’s all time leading scorer – men’s or women’s Division 1 play since women’s basketball was absorbed into the NCAA – she authored a record-breaking narrative of team leadership, scoring prowess, and big game performances that stoked multiple economic flames. First, every game her Iowa Hawkeyes played at home or with other schools in the Big 10 conference sold out. Tickets sold for record prices. Sales of her NIL gear surpassed that of Shedeur Sanders (son of University of Colorado coach Deion Sanders). Most importantly, she made women’s basketball a must-see event in-person and through a variety of cable and streaming networks. If cycling can take one lesson from Clark’s success and impending stardom in the WNBA, it’s that you can elevate the story of the individual athlete in a team sport into a household name and ride that popularity to greater overall economic success. Could Tadej Pogačar or Demi Vollering become as ubiquitous as Messi or Serena with the right presentation and broader storytelling?
Demi Vollering – Could she be cycling’s Serena?
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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