In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Pogačar Dominates L-B-L; More Solo Attacks; Women’s Cycling is More Exciting than Men’s; WADA Faces a Credibility Crisis; UCI Already Diluting the Power of SafeR Initiative; Will “Spulu” Happen.
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- No Surprise: Pogačar Extends His Dominance
- The Rise of the Solo Attack Strategy
- Why is Women’s Cycling So Often More Exciting than Men’s?
- WADA Credibility Crisis: Battle Lines Being Drawn
- Is the SafeR Initiative Already Being Diluted?
Liège wasn’t a battle between Van der Poel and Pogačar
The spring Classics officially wrapped up this weekend with Liège-Bastogne-Liège, featuring the first matchup between any of the sport’s Big Six in over a month. Not too surprisingly, the race was yet another cakewalk for Tadej Pogačar, who took a break from his high-altitude pre-Giro d’Italia training camp to come down and trounce the competition with his trademark early solo breakaway. Pogačar’s sixth career Monument ties him with Mathieu van der Poel – who finished third in a likewise impressive performance, and Romain Bardet placed a popular second, his best performance in years. Pogačar’s 1:39 victory margin was the largest at Liège in 44 years and further cements the hypothesis that, in modern cycling, you have to be one of a small handful of ultra-elite riders to have a chance at winning the biggest one-day races. This marks the 12th time in the last 16 Monuments that either he, Van der Poel or Evenepoel has taken the win. And within that elite group of six, an even more elite hierarchy of one seems to be forming – with Pogačar winning three out of his last four head-to-head one-day races against Van der Poel and his last two over Evenepoel. In short, it appears that when Pogačar shows up, unless it is the Tour de France and Jonas Vingegaard is present, the Slovenian superstar will likely come out on top.
Pogačar attacked when he said he would
In addition to cementing Pogačar’s status as the world’s best all-around rider, the race highlighted the fact that successful solo attack strategies at major one-day races are clearly on the rise. Solo attacks have won 11 out of the last 14 Monuments, and a remarkable seven out of the last eight monuments. While it would be easy to pin the rise of long-range solo attacks on the raw talent of these superstars, their rise has actually started to occur since the current “Top Six era” began. In fact, the first five combined monument wins between Pogačar and Van der Poel were won out of small groups, whereas the last seven have come from solo attacks – all in the last two seasons. While some of this may be due to a change in tactics (e.g., the best riders realizing it isn’t in their interest to allow lesser competitors to hang around until late in the race) or advances in training and nutrition, it is more likely mostly due to the fact that these Top Six elite riders don’t actually face off against one another that often – a problem that we have lamented many times before.
Action all the way to the finish of the women’s Liège – Grace Brown took the win
Contrast this situation with women’s cycling, which sees the sport’s best riders routinely facing off against each other. They did so with dramatic effect at Liège-Bastogne-Liège Femmes, where Grace Brown (FDJ-Suez) posted a dynamic come-from-behind sprint win. Brown’s gutsy ride in the nearly day-long breakawa – including a near crash in the finale run-in, and clever selection of wheels to follow in the final 500-meter chase down of Fleche winner Kasia Niewiadoma – kept fans guessing as to whether Elisa Longo Borghini (Lidl-Trek) or Demi Vollering (SDWorx-Protime) would edge ahead for the win. But Brown surged through on the right side for an incredibly popular win. Women’s racing seems increasingly exciting to watch; it also seems increasingly likely the men’s side of the sport could begin to lag, perhaps even behind the women’s – simply because the outcome is rarely in question.
Doping on the up?
Last week we commented on recent increases in doping cases, and this week we can only say, “it gets worse before it gets worse.” News that EPO tests will be more expensive and complicated was completely eclipsed by the near simultaneous release of a New York Times article and investigative documentary on German TV which revealed that 23 Chinese swimmers tested positive prior to the Tokyo Games in 2021. The reports contained damning details that the Chinese anti-doping agency (CHINADA) and WADA effectively covered up the positive tests by bending procedures: not enforcing the strict liability clause which should have triggered provisional suspensions and accepting a statistically and scientifically unlikely contamination defense without the required suspensions prior to case hearings. This has abruptly upended global anti-doping, with comparisons to the state-sponsored Russian doping scandal already circulating. The potential damages from this morass are likely to be threefold: a loss of reputation, a breakdown in trust, and a failure of scientific integrity. Anti-doping activists may finally have incontrovertible proof of WADA’s ineptitude – that it accepted CHINADA’s questionable explanation with inadequate follow-up and ignored standard procedures. All of these factors degrade WADA’s reputation as the ultimate power and authority in the international anti-doping system.
Is WADA ‘no longer fit for the role or purpose’?
As a result, many critics have quickly weighed in, suggesting that WADA is no longer fit for the role or purpose. From a trust perspective, vocal NADO leaders like USADA CEO Travis Tygart may increasingly use external legal channels like the Rodchenkov Act to punish doping misdeeds and to re-sort podiums or re-award medals – beginning to act independently of what is increasingly believed to be an ineffective WADA-led model. From a science perspective, there seems to be an increasing tendency for NADOs and the Court for Arbitration in Sport (CAS) to accept dubious “accidental contamination” defenses despite statistical and chemically improbable information – for example, the nutrition supplements or shared environments suggested in the recent Simona Halep example. This reduces the likelihood that legitimate cases will be processed appropriately in the future, if any far-fetched defense can fall “within the realm of possibility.” Hot takes from Tygart infuriated WADA leadership, including his intent to retrieve any medals won by the Chinese athletes on behalf of “defrauded” U.S. athletes; WADA even referred Tygart’s comments to its legal counsel for potential defamation filings. That oncoming USADA vs. WADA war could be a bigger story than the 23 Chinese swimmers this spring – and may trigger a complete reformation of anti-doping’s engine in the future.
More crashes in the spring
We recently mentioned that the CEO of SafeR, the organization chartered with improving rider safety in professional cycling, was fired after a spring season in which many of the sport’s most important stars were sidelined with season and even career-threatening injuries. The UCI quietly started advertising for a replacement this past week, and it did not go unnoticed by our friends at Wielerflits. Shockingly, the power of the CEO role is now being redefined as a “Coordinator,” who will lack many of the advisory and policy-drafting powers of the prior executive, and instead coordinate policy implementation for pro cycling’s “stakeholders” – a mix of the teams (AIGCP), race organizers, the UCI, and the CPA. We would argue that the change in SafeR’s leadership dilutes its ability to independently set safety standards, and potentially turns SafeR into a buffer between complainants and organizers or the UCI when things go wrong on the road. While we hope that isn’t the end result, we are already watching the dialog shift from “safety” on the racecourse to punishing riders with red and yellow violation cards. However, we’re already one-third through the 2024 season without a true safety roadmap that would define what is or isn’t a rider violation. For more on this developing situation, read Wielerflits’ interview with new AIGCP chairman, Brent Copeland (Jayco-AIUla) here (use of Google Translate or similar translation service recommended).
Read the Brent Copeland interview
We’ve covered many of the key developments as college athletes have successfully challenged the NCAA’s student-amateur model – and won. The results of court cases and labor relations arbitration hearings continue to shift power to the athletes – primarily by undoing rules that the NCAA unilaterally implemented to restrict name/image/likeness (NIL) deals. While there are more court cases pending, the most important ones have been fought by Jeffrey Kessler, and his biggest case – which could force NCAA stakeholders to forfeit billions of dollars in retroactive NIL payments to student athletes – could completely rewrite the amateur sporting landscape with mandatory athlete revenue sharing. The trending reformation of the amateur model – even World Athletics is getting into the fray with proposed prize money for Olympic gold medalists, as we reported last week – may eventually force the IOC and international federations like the UCI into a similar stance given the increasingly strong legal standing of the athletes.
Prize money for the Olympic winners?
As we move closer to the Paris Summer Olympics, now less than 100 days away, new concerns and worries are starting to emerge. Street rebellions have included trade union attacks on the Federal government over pension programs, protests both for and against on Palestinian rights protesters and cases of racist police violence against protestors. The fascist right-wing party continues to garner support, while the overwhelmingly complex logistics of simply staging the event seem more onerous than ever. Plans to conduct the opening ceremonies as an unparalleled extravaganza with the athletes moving down the river Seine in boats may have to be reconfigured, given the security challenges of safeguarding such a large area. Activists fear that AI-powered video surveillance to be used at the Games represent a Trojan Horse for introduction of the technology for more general use into the future, and it seems certain that there will be further confrontations from various human rights groups over the participation of both Russian and Israeli athletes.
No official Russian team
There are still major concerns and questions about the coming sports streaming joint venture between ESPN, Fox, and Warner Bros. Discovery – nicknamed Spulu – “sports Hulu.” The project has been subjected to criticism, particularly from the major U.S. sports leagues, who fear a virtual monopoly in terms of bidding on sports television and streaming rights. There has also been a Federal antitrust probe, and a lawsuit from smaller competitor FuboTV. Various Congressmen have now initiated an investigation into the proposed deal, with an April 30 deadline for a response. “Without more complete information about the pricing, intent, and organization of this new venture, we are concerned that this consolidation will result in higher prices for consumers and less fair licensing terms for upstream sports league and downstream video distributors,” said Democratic Congressmen Nadler and Castro. Whether or not the venture ever lifts off is still open to question: as Front Office Sports points out, the proposed venture still lacks a name, pricing format, or any kind of working agreement among the three partners.
Virtual monopoly in terms of bidding on sports television and streaming rights
Last week, Monterey, CA hosted North America’s largest bike industry gathering, the Sea Otter Classic. With over 1,100 brands and almost 80,000 attendees the event was an overwhelming and sometimes chaotic gathering of tribes from MTB, road and gravel cultures. With the industry mired in its worst-ever bike recession as it emerges from the pandemic bike boom, the mood among participants was surprisingly positive, with many insiders confident that the industry would emerge from its slumber in the next 12 months or so. The event also hosts the first stop in the Life Time Grand Prix, the largest and richest bike racing series in North America, with a $300,000 prize purse. The initial events were won by dominant off-road stars Keegan Swenson and Sofia Gomez Villafane, who both won last year also. There were also more international riders this year. With a Sea Otter event already in place in Girona, Spain and Sea Otter Australia coming in 2025, will we soon see global expansion of the Life Time Grand Prix?
Sea Otter gets bigger every year
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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