Trevor Lawrence finally has the pieces to jump to NFL superstardom with Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars fans born on this side of the millennium have two main memories: the 2017 playoff run and the 2020 tankathon.

The “Sacksonville” team of ‘17 holds a special place in the heart of every Duval citizen, but the final stretch of the regular season three years later — when Jacksonville grew its losing streak to 15 consecutive games and a 12-36 record since the 2017 AFC title game — was almost as enjoyable.

Fans succumbed to the team’s losing ways in 2020, because that otherwise forgettable season turned the league’s losingest franchise into a grand prize winner.

The Jaguars got Trevor Lawrence.

Flash forward another three years, and Lawrence’s career arch looks like a rollercoaster track.

The Jaguars hired legendary college coach Urban Meyer to bring a winning culture to town — he was ousted before the end of his first season following a slew of inappropriate acts.

The Jaguars replaced Meyer with Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson — his first season (which featured a late-season surge to win the division) was as inspiring as his second season (which featured a late-season collapse to miss the playoffs) was heartbreaking.

In Lawrence’s first three NFL seasons, Jacksonville finished 3-14, 9-8, and 9-8. Another way to look at it: Lawrence began his career with a 5-20 starting record, went 15-5 between the end of 2022 and the start of 2023, and closed last season 0-5.

The rollercoaster rose, then fell, then rose, then fell.

Lawrence’s ride in the pros has been a blur, especially compared to the coast at the top he once enjoyed.

• Cartersville High (4 years) — 53-3 as a starter — 161 TDs, 21 INTs — 2 state championships
• Clemson Tigers (3 years) — 34-2 as a starter — 90 TDs, 17 INTs — 1 national championship
• Jacksonville Jaguars (3 years) — 20-30 as a starter — 58 TDs, 39 INTs — 1 playoff win

His NFL production isn’t what it was supposed to look like. Lawrence was destined to be the Jaguars’ football messiah, a long-haired hero who lifted the franchise from the ashes. He was prophesied to do in Northeast Florida what LeBron James did in Northeast Ohio. Lawrence’s nickname in Pro Football Reference is literally The Prince Who Was Promised.

Once touted as the best college quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, Lawrence has yet to live up to his impossible expectations.

Here’s the good news: It’s not reaaaally his fault.

His rookie campaign was trammeled by the same roster that finished 1-15 the year prior. After D.J. Chark suffered a season-ending ankle injury in Week 4, Lawrence was left with Marvin Jones, Laviska Shenault, Laquon Treadwell and Tavon Austin as his top receivers.

Burdened by pass-catchers who weren’t all that good at creating separation, in a scheme that wasn’t all that good at manipulating space, on a team that fired its head coach for kicking the kicker, Lawrence finished his first season with a league-high 17 interceptions.

Jaguars brass got serious in 2022 by swapping Meyer for Pederson and signing Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Evan Engram, which required Shad Khan to shell out some dough. The billionaire’s upgraded team started slow with some tight losses before the bye — then Lawrence hit a switch.

Among all quarterbacks after Week 11, he ranked second in Expected Points Added (EPA) and fifth in touchdowns to lead Jacksonville to its second divisional title since ‘99.

2023 was meant to be the year for Lawrence to perform his lift-the-franchise act and take the Jaguars deep into the postseason, especially after the team acquired a star receiver in Calvin Ridley. But despite an 8-3 start, Ridley never found a groove in the offense, and a myriad of injuries (to Lawrence included) grew too high.

Jacksonville finished 1-5 and out of the playoffs.

Ridley didn’t regain his All-Pro form partly due to Zay Jones’ unavailability. After shining in training camp, Jones suffered a significant knee injury in Week 2 and tried to play through it for much of the season. Despite his efforts, Ridley was thrust into a vertical role he wasn’t best suited for, especially after having been out of the league for nearly two years.

The Broward County native finished fifth in targets (32) but 16th in receiving yards (388) on passes 20-plus yards downfield last season, per PFF. He ranked outside the top 40 in yards per route run, yards per reception, and catch rate on such throws among 90 qualifying receivers. Though he led the league in pass interference penalties drawn, Ridley also had 3 drops and caught just 3 of 10 contested targets on deep passes.

Before him, Lawrence’s most-targeted vertical threat was Marvin Jones, who was even less efficient.

But now — finally! — the Jaguars have added not just more pieces to its receiver room, but the type of pieces that specifically fit with Lawrence.

This guy was a shoo-in for the first overall pick, after all. Lawrence has boasted one of the best arms in the league since his first career game.

Let’s clarify one thing: Arm talent is not the ability to throw a football super-duper far. Your uncle flaunts this “skill” without prompt every Thanksgiving, and you don’t see him playing on Sundays.

Arm talent is more about velocity than distance. Any quarterback in the NFL can throw a ball 40-plus yards, but only a handful can throw it on a frozen rope.

Here’s another early example of Lawrence’s shoulder strength, this time on a shorter throw.

Whether he finds a defensive weakness before the snap (like the clip above) or after (like the clip below), Lawrence can exploit a soft spot in coverage as well as anyone.

While Lawrence’s arm talent is apparent in these clips, his processing speed is his true calling card.

The 24-year-old has actually been criticized for moving through his progressions too fast — yet Lawrence has recorded the league’s lowest ‘checkdown rate’ over the last two seasons, per PFF.

He’s yielded a very low ‘time to throw’ and a high ‘average depth of target’ simultaneously. Normally, when quarterbacks get the ball out quickly, they find their checkdown after skimming through their first one or two reads.

Lawrence is not normal.

More cool film clips here and here and here and here

Thanks to his golden arm and supercomputer brain, Lawrence is aggressive downfield without holding the ball for long — more so than any other passer across the past two seasons except Tua Tagovailoa, per PFF.

Tagovailoa plays in a uniquely explosive Miami Dolphins offense featuring the fastest skill position group ever assembled. Lawrence… does not.

But now — finally! — the Jaguars have added not just more pieces to its receiver room, but the type of pieces that specifically fit with Lawrence. The type of talent that makes the Dolphins’ offense go boom. Or should I say, zoom.

Gabriel Davis (6’2”, 216 lbs) joined the Jaguars via free agency following four seasons with the Buffalo Bills. In that time, he led the league in percentage of targets resulting in a first down or touchdown (76.7%) and ranked third in yards per reception (16.7).

Davis has drawn 113 career targets on passes 15-plus yards downfield; his 13 touchdowns and 53 first downs on such plays rank top-12 among all players since 2020. The UCF product also broke the league’s record for receiving touchdowns in a single playoff game (4) in the 2021 Divisional Round.

Brian Thomas Jr. (6’3”, 209 lbs) joined the Jaguars via the draft following three seasons with the LSU Tigers. He played sparingly in his first two years on campus before leading the nation in receiving touchdowns last year (17), the most by any college player since DeVonta Smith in 2020.

On passes 20-plus yards downfield, Thomas Jr. caught 15 of 22 targets for 670 yards and 12 touchdowns. And while Texas’ Xavier Worthy broke the 40-yard dash record at April’s NFL Combine, Thomas Jr. had a better ‘flying 20’ and ‘speed score’.

Consistency may not be their forte, at least not yet, but that’s okay. Kirk, 27, and Engram, 29, will continue to be Lawrence’s top two targets as Davis, 25, and Thomas Jr., 21, get acclimated.

Pederson said of Davis in March, “He’s a down-the-field guy, much like Marvin Jones our first year, much like Calvin, not the same speed guy as Calvin, but can affect the defense down the field.”

He said of Thomas Jr. in April, “You’re adding a skilled receiver, you’re adding depth, you’re adding a guy that has an element of speed that we haven’t had probably since Calvin last year.”

Ridley reached 21.52 miles per hour on his longest play of the 2023 season; only 10 NFL players had a faster max speed, per Next Gen Stats. His stats may not have fully reflected his talent, but clearly the Jaguars were eager to find a formidable replacement after he left for the Tennessee Titans.

Jacksonville had signed Davis before the fact, but once Ridley exited, they doubled down on their speed theory.

“You have to be explosive in this league,” offensive coordinator Press Taylor explained at OTAs. “You know, it’s tough enough being consistently efficient. We want to be able to have that explosive element to us … making sure we’re attacking all aspects of the field and defense.”

“Brian’s length and speed was a big thing that was a strength of his through his college career. And then something Gabe has always brought … We feel like we have the people to push the ball down the field. Just got to get the opportunity and call those types of plays throughout the course of games.”

Jacksonville isn’t just strategizing to call more deep shots. Though that would be welcomed by all, the goal is really to improve at every level of the field.

Pederson was open about the offseason approach at Thomas Jr.’s introductory press conference.

“I think the number one thing you see [from Thomas Jr.] is the speed on film. You see the ability to get behind secondary and the second and third-level defenders. That’s big in our league.”

Translation: Few NFL receivers consistently get behind defenders.

“… What that does then, is open up the second-level area. That’s where those 12 to 15 to 20 to 25-yard ranges are really important. That’s where you can spend a lot of time and make a lot of catches in those areas with what we saw on tape with Brian. Being able to separate at the top of the route and use that athleticism and use his strength and his size to create some openness there in that second level.”

Translation: The threat of his speed forces cornerbacks to play a little deeper, which can create space for intermediate routes.

“… It opens up that second level, intermediate zones, in your passing game. That’s where Evan can get a lot of his targets in there and Christian gets a lot of targets in there. Gabe, you look at his career, he’s gotten a lot of targets in there. Now you’ve got a guy, Gabe can stretch the field a little bit, Brian now can stretch the field obviously and we’ll see once we get everybody in there and all the pieces together just how this thing unfolds.”

Translation: The threat of his speed also creates space for other players to operate underneath.

Opposing defenses could squat in shallow alignments and squeeze the field for Jacksonville’s offense — not just in 2023, but really since Chark’s 2021 injury. Lawrence has been playing on ‘hard mode’ his entire career due to a lack of adequate spacing.

He, Pederson and Taylor have recited “efficient and explosive” as the goal of their offense. That hasn’t always been the outcome under this regime.

I like to think of EPA per play as a measure of explosiveness, and success rate as a measure of efficiency. Lawrence is one of the league’s better quarterbacks in the second category, which has buoyed the offense so far. But the lack of playmaking by the receiving core and effectiveness by the running game has dragged the unit’s numbers back the other way.

The Jaguars may not have added any superstars this offseason, but they did the next best thing by adding spacing. While the team certainly expects productive campaigns from Davis and Thomas Jr., their presence alone should make life easier for Lawrence, Kirk, Engram and Travis Etienne.

In 2022 and 2023, the Jaguars ranked top 16 in running back attempts into a ‘loaded box,’ but bottom 16 in stuffed run rate and success rate on such attempts, per Sports Info Solutions. With opposing safeties hypothetically playing farther back to compensate for the speed of Jacksonville’s newcomers, the hope is that the speed of Etienne will also be unleashed in 2024.

He and Lawrence are determined to re-climb the mountain after winning a National Championship at Clemson together, even if the path has been rockier than expected.

“I mean, look, I learned this back when I went to Green Bay as a player under Mike Holmgren,” Doug Pederson said at OTAs. “He always taught us that it takes [quarterbacks] three to four years. It takes that time to develop into the quarterback that you want to become or you want for your team. And it’s just not an overnight deal. It’s not a plug-and-play deal.”

“Some teams, some guys are going to have success, but there is that just understanding the game and learning the game and studying the game. For Trevor, he’s now into that third year with us. For us, that’s the encouraging part as an offensive staff, especially just myself, now going into that third year. This is kinda that jump year that he can have.”

Jaguars fans may have gotten ahead of themselves after Frank Gore’s infamous first down, though it didn’t help that Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson won MVPs in their second seasons, or that C.J. Stroud became the fifth rookie passer ever to reach 4,000 yards last year. However, Lawrence has been one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks since entering the league.

His NFL production isn’t what it was supposed to look like.

Yet Lawrence is about to become one of the richest athletes in America.

The Jaguars are confident they have a quarterback on their roster worth building around — and they’re as confident as ever that they’ve put the right pieces around him. If Davis and Thomas Jr. prove effective as field stretchers, Jacksonville believes everything else will come into place, and Lawrence will jump from former phenom to present-day superstar.