Wimbledon 2024: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jelena Ostapenko Preview, Head-to-Head, and Prediction

Wimbledon couldn’t have asked for a better start. A series of exciting deciding set clashes had fans glued to their screens on the opening day. On day 2, the women’s section of the draw caters to fans’ needs with even more promising fixtures. The standout tie among these takes place on Court 12 between Ajla Tomljanovic and Jelena Ostapenko.

It’s a rematch of their infamous 2021 Wimbledon clash which ended with some ugly altercation. Tomljanovic won that battle in three-sets, but vengeful Ostapenko ensured to win the following two clashes in straights. With plenty to play for here, the matchup is bound to produce the best action of the day.

Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jelena Ostapenko: Wimbledon Round 1 Preview

Tomljanovic loves grass courts. Her slices and ability to take the ball on the rise suits the surface. She managed to make the quarter-finals of Wimbledon on the previous two occasions where she lost to the eventual champion. In the grass-court leadups, the Australian owns an 8-2 win/loss record, including wins over Leylah Fernandez and Anastasia Potapova.

Meanwhile, Ostapenko hasn’t had the best of starts to grass swing. She has won only one of the three matches she’s played on the surface this year. Compared to the last three years, where the Latvian recorded close to 75% winning rate, these are very discerning numbers. However, Ostapenko does have a history of blowing hot and cold and finding form when it matters the most.

Ajla Tomljanovic vs Jelena Ostapenko: Head-to-Head

Ostapenko leads the head-to-head 3-1 against Tomljanovic. However, the grass court meetings have a 1-1 scoreline.

• Rome 2021 R32 (C): Ostapenko won 6-2, 7-6(3)
• Wimbledon 2021 R32 (G): Tomljanovic won 4-6, 6-4, 6-2
• Eastbourne 2022 R32 (G): Ostapenko won 6-4, 6-4
• Australian Open 2024 R128 (H): Ostapenko won 6-0, 3-6, 6-4

With only two matches on grass courts, the head-to-head provides only little information about how the matchup could pan out.

Prediction:

Ostapenko and Tomljanovic are far from identical players. While the former relies on powerful groundstrokes and aims to outhit opponents, Ajla is more of a point constructor who indulges in long rallies. However, her serve remains a big weapon. In her five matches in Birmingham, the ace rate was regularly above 5% while she won over 65% of first serve points.

The Latvian, meanwhile, registered a couple of big serving performances crossing 8% ace rate this season on grass. However, her service points won rate is much lower than Tomljanovic. She compensates poor serving numbers with her consistent return outcomes. Ostapenko does not spare substandard second serves and breaks opponent’s serve more often than the tour average.

The matchup will stay in Ostapenko’s racquet, but Ajla’s much superior form will give the Australian loads of confidence. Tomljanovic’s movement is also going to be a key to the outcome. Going by Ostapenko’s ability to exploit poor movers and Tomljanovic’s recent fitness issues, the Latvian will avenge the 2021 loss.

Final Verdict: Ostapenko to win in 3 sets, she will struggle to match Tomljanovic in ace count but eventually seal the deal with strong return performances.