Top 10 NFC QBs who will have the biggest impact over the next decade

In comparing the starting quarterbacks in each conference, there is no question that the current crop in the AFC still vastly out-punches their counterparts in the NFC. You could argue that at least the top 3, if not the top 5, if not the top 8 quarterbacks in the entire NFL all reside in the AFC. Just to name eight quarterbacks in the AFC, in case you are skeptical: Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud, Aaron Rodgers, and Trevor Lawrence.

Not even listed there are Tua Tagovailoa, Deshaun Watson, Anthony Richardson, and young hopefuls including Drake Maye, Bo Nix, and Will Levis. Other than the group in Las Vegas, you could argue that the worst starting quarterback in the AFC is Russell Wilson, a former Super Bowl champion who was thought to be among the best in the NFL only a couple of years ago.

NFC teams haven’t taken as many shots at the quarterback position in the draft, and have missed what shots they do take way more often including Carson Wentz, Jared Goff (the first time with the Rams), Mitchell Trubisky, Jameis Winston, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Josh Rosen, and Daniel Jones. It was almost as if the NFC was happy to let the AFC continue to hammer away at the sport’s most position…

Until now.

With a record six quarterbacks drafted in the first 12 picks, the NFC made four of those selections including Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, and J.J. McCarthy. For the first time in a long time, it feels like the conference could actually start to close the gap for quarterback talent between themselves and the AFC. But the hope for these NFC quarterbacks to pan out is still basically stuck on “hope” until we see if any of them can step up to be the next version of Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, or Lamar.

Heck, most NFC teams would settle for Tua.

These 10 NFC quarterbacks stand the best odds of ruling the conference for most, if not all of the next 10 seasons. Sure, some of them will flame out (and soon) while others will prove to be flying under the radar. Some answers are still playing in college, if not high school. But we had to start somewhere and these are the 10 quarterbacks in the best position to succeed for the next decade.

1. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

Season: 5
Age: 26 in November
Contract: 4-year, $220 million extension signed through 2028

Sure this feels generous for a quarterback with only one season as a starter, but I am giving Love extra credit because he has Matt LaFleur. In LaFleur’s five seasons as the head coach, the Packers have been to the playoffs (and gone beyond the first round) four times and Aaron Rodgers won two MVPs, so combining recent history with the franchise’s elite track record for developing quarterbacks since the 1960s, in addition to Love’s strong finish in 2023, I am less skeptical about this situation than I am of others in the NFC.

It is easier to picture Love and LaFleur still working together five years from now than it is any other quarterback and head coach or OC in the NFC. Those quarterbacks who come the closest, like Jared Goff/Dan Campbell or Brock Purdy/Kyle Shanahan, don’t appear to have the same type of ceiling and physical tools of Jordan Love.

You’d have to be a Bears or Lions fan to not be impressed by throws like these:

Love dominated the last eight games (70% completions, 18 TD, 1 INT, although he did have 5 fumbles) and the Cowboys in the Wild Card round (272 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT). He has yet to turn 26, so he’s right in that sweet spot of being both a new quarterback flashing the skills that made him a first round pick and also a veteran entering his fifth NFL season.

Getting one or two more years of data on the recently drafted NFC quarterbacks could change the top of this list dramatically, but for now Love is the one who has the best combination of age, coaching/situation, some NFL production, and the physical tools/mental acuity that it takes to be a successful first-round pick.

2. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Season: Rookie
Age: 23 in November
Contract: Team control through 2028

Picking the No. 1 QB on this list was hard, but picking No. 2 was much harder, and this ranking is about 50% Caleb and 50% the state of the NFC. If Williams had been drafted into the AFC and I was writing about the conference, he would not come close to the top 5. And it’s not just that he was the No. 1 overall pick that lands him this high, it’s the fact that Williams is considered one of the most talented No. 1 picks of the last 25 years.

If Williams becomes the latest No. 1 overall quarterback to fall below expectations, so be it. I still think that every team in the NFC would secretly or not-so-secretly trade out their own QB for Williams if they had the chance, and the Bears also don’t have to pay veteran QB prices for Caleb in 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, or even 2028’s fifth-year option. That’s half of the next decade.

I think most people are going to take the potential of a Caleb Williams over the security of knowing what you’re getting with Dak or Hurts or Purdy. Taking a chance on this particular quarterback, even before he’s played his first snap in the NFL, is a better risk than any other quarterback situation in the entire conference.

3. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Season: 9
Age: 31 in July
Contract: Potential free agent in 2025

Whereas Matt Stafford and Kirk Cousins are already in the latter half of their thirties, Prescott is 31 and therefore more likely to be a starter for another six or seven years, at least. Holding Prescott back from being higher on this list, besides age, is his uncertain future with the Cowboys (and therefore the NFC) and an impending contract number expected to come close to $60 million per season. Whereas we get some rookie contract years with most quarterbacks on this list, Dak’s cost as a veteran looking for a record-breaking extension could cost Dallas the ability to keep other stars and the chance to get to the Super Bowl.

If it were a “next five years” list, maybe Dak would be a bit higher on it. But despite Tom Brady skewing people’s perceptions of reality, most quarterbacks fall off after their mid-30s; and before he can fall off, Dak still kind of needs to “get on” with only two playoff wins in eight years. Regardless of who takes the blame for that, it’s more difficult to predict future Super Bowls without having past playoff wins.

4. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Season: 3rd
Age: Turns 25 in December
Contract: Team control through 2025 (franchise tag possible in 2026-2028)

It’s amazing how many people will feel some type of way about Purdy making the top 5. Forget the first round; if Purdy had even been a second-round pick like predecessor Jimmy Garoppolo, there would be far less skepticism about the success being real. Purdy has won twice as many career playoff games as Dak despite only making 21 regular season starts so far.

“That’s only because he has Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers!”

I am taking that into account. How many Super Bowls would Tom Brady have won in the beginning of his career if his first head coach was Eric Mangini and he was playing for the Browns? Purdy is absolutely dominating his opportunity to play in Shanahan’s system, and you bank on the Niners continuing to pour resources into the offensive personnel, most recently including first-round receiver Ricky Pearsall.

The 49ers have been to seven of the last 13 NFC Championship games, so unlike the Cowboys, they’re consistently getting close even if they haven’t won a Super Bowl in decades.

5. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Season: 5th
Age: 26 on August 7
Contract: Signed through 2028

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

When you know that an organization deeply cares about its offensive line and weapons, it’s easier to bet on the quarterback having success for a long time. Though the Eagles stumbled down the stretch last season, they’re going to continue to enter every season with an attempt at a top-5 supporting cast, and that now includes Saquon Barkley, as well as A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, Jordan Mailata, Landon Dickerson, Cam Jurgens, and Tyler Steen.

Kellen Moore will be Hurts’ third offensive coordinator in the last three years, but Nick Sirianni’s going to keep what’s working in place and try to cut out everything that was bad, so maybe we’ll see the best version of Hurts that we’ve ever seen.

6. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Season: Rookie
Age: 24 in December
Contract: Team control through 2028

Almost the same explanation here as the one I wrote for Williams, because Daniels was right on his heels throughout the draft process and would have been a worthy No. 1 overall pick after the senior season he had at LSU. There is not a huge difference between Caleb and Jayden as prospects, so the tiebreaker really just came down to supporting casts and likelihood of team success in the next five years.

Daniels might not be as immediate of a success as Williams (or he could be, RGIII won Rookie of the Year over Andrew Luck in 2012), but getting an outstanding QB prospect at the start of his rookie contract is what teams covet and we’re talking about a 10-year timeline here.

If we were only talking about 2024, then most teams would rather have Stafford than Caleb or Jayden. Since we’re talking about how these quarterbacks will do from 2024 to 2033 in a weak QB conference, two quarterbacks who have never thrown a pass in the NFL are in the top 6.

7. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Season: 9th
Age: 30 in October
Contract: Signed through 2028 at $53m APY

Maybe Jared Goff wins more Super Bowls in the next 10 years than any other quarterback on this list, but if that happens it will be largely thanks to the coaches and players around him. That is just an unfathomable thing to say about the Lions, but is nevertheless the case right now. Goff is a steady, dependable presence with the ability to manage an offense at a high level, but he just does not possess the arm talent, arm strength, downfield accuracy, improvisation skills, or dual-threat ability of basically any other quarterback on this list. And now he costs over $50 million per season! There’s still a chance that the Lions end up doing what the Rams did, when they traded Goff to the Rams before his previous extension even kicked in because L.A. felt they needed an upgrade.

If Goff does win a Super Bowl, or especially two, he could fit into that Eli Manning class of quarterbacks: He wouldn’t be a lock for the Hall of Fame even with two rings, but he’s got the respect of coaches, teammates, and like 45% of fans.

8. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers

Season: 2nd
Age: 23
Contract: Rookie contract through 2026, fifth-year option 2027

If you’re seeing Caleb at No. 2 and Bryce at No. 8 and thinking that it is ironic that last year’s No. 1 pick could be so much lower than this year’s No. 1 pick, I do not blame you. Caleb could have as bad of a rookie season as Bryce Young had in 2023. However, others are probably wondering why Bryce is even on the list at all given the first season he had, finishing at the bottom of nearly every major passing category. But Carolina’s already showing the advantages to drafting a quarterback on a rookie scale contract by spending $261 million in 2024 free agency, the fourth-most in the NFL.

Whether or not those decisions pay off remains to be seen, but the Panthers are attempting to give Young better protection with guards Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, better weapons with receivers Diontae Johnson and first-round pick Xavier Legette, and better offensive game plans with new head coach Dave Canales. Now it’s up to Young to take advantage of this opportunity and either shoot up towards the top of this list or fall off of it completely.

9. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Season: 7th
Age: 29
Contract: Signed through 2026 at $33m per year

It’s possible that the best quarterback in the NFC South isn’t even starting (Michael Penix, Jr.) and that’s despite the fact that this is probably the worst quarterback division in the NFL. You only need go back to 2022 to find that the four starters in the South were Tom Brady, Marcus Mariota, Andy Dalton, and Baker Mayfield…and that was for a different NFC South team!

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

The Bucs are shooting their shot with Cleveland’s former No. 1 overall pick, signing Mayfield to a three-year extension after a decent season with Canales as his offensive coordinator, who is now in Carolina. So this is Mayfield’s best chance to prove he’s not a short-term rental.

10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Season: 6th
Age: Turns 27 on August 7th (same birthday as Hurts)
Contract: Signed through 2028, guaranteed salary through 2025

However hyped up you might feel about any quarterback right now, just remember that two years ago Kyler Murray was coming off of winning Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2019 and back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons in 2020 and 2021. Many people were calling Murray “the MVP of the first half” of 2021 after he had 20 total touchdowns and only 5 turnovers for a 7-0 Cardinals team.

He’s been turned into a punchline about video games since then, but the Cardinals offense showed signs of life after Murray’s return from a torn ACL last November, including road wins over the Steelers and Eagles. The combination of Kyler, offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, and receivers Marvin Harrison, Jr., Zay Jones, Michael Wilson, and tight end Trey McBride could still end up giving Murray the last laugh.

But if the haters are proven correct, the Cardinals might make Murray a post-June 1 cut next year to escape the rest of his contract.

You didn’t make this list, but you could probably make some other list: Kirk Cousins, JJ McCarthy, Michael Penix, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, Sam Howell