Rocky Road: a Cobbles PowerPoll

Just to sort my own mind and get in gear for the upcoming barrage of cobbles goodness in the coming weeks here’s a quick and dirty PowerPoll of the teams as we go into the holiest of holy periods of the year. We’ve had a ton of racing already and as for cobbles we’ve seen opening weekend, Nokere and some assorted small scraps to give us some pointers as to who is where this year

1. Visma-LeaseABike

What have we seen? Well opening weekend, and all other races seem to be a continuation of 2023 which is pretty damn good news for someone who had a year like they had. They won double and did it in some impressive fashion. They raced with a democratic multiple pronged attack where Wout van Aert was merely one of the awe inspiring weapons. Just like early last year there is nothing that suggests that they won’t dominate the cobbled Monuments and you have to think that an organization this smart won’t want to be repeating whatever errors that stopped that from happening last year.
What’s new? An already insane lineup is now bolstered with Jan Tratnik, who has completed his transformation into classics wizard, and an ever improing Matteo Jorgenson who brings another dimension to the roster. They also have a stronger Kooij as a serious option for the sprintier races which gives them even more cards (although it may put more of a question mark on which role Laporte is to play in all of this).
What’s their problem? It’s all about winning one of the big ones this year, especially for Wout, and there are a lot of indications that this will be as difficult for them as last year. Their best weapon is when they ride musketeer style, all for one and one for all, like they do in the smaller races but when it becomes more the “setting things up for Wout”-team then suddenly they don’t look as terrifying anymore. And Wout one on one against MvdP we all agree is not going to work out for Visma very often, don’t we?

2. Alpecin-Deceuninck

What have we seen? There’s good cause to call this the best classics team in the world right now and there’s a reasonable chance they will move up in this ranking as we get some more races with Van der Poel on the start line. With Philipsen now a confirmed classics beast and pretty much accepted as the top sprinter in the world they have the two sharpest weapons of anyone. Add to that some terrific support and you have a team with very few chinks in the armor. They had the most miserable opening weekend of all the top teams but they didn’t bring their a-team, it was really only Jasper who disappointed and we’ve seen him come into his real form since then.
What’s new? Jasper Philipsen. There’s no denying the difference a year makes in how we, and most importantly how the opposition, view him as a classics leader. The double threat they now possess make the calculations so much harder for everyone else to make once we come deep in the finales.
What’s their problem? Theoretically a leadership complication between the two now that Jasper has risen in status but that’s just speculation. What we have seen indicates the opposite really. Some of their key lieutenants have had some injury issues though and if Visma start playing cards left and right then Alpecin could come to need all the healthy legs they can find in order to not get tactically check mated.

Photo by Ilario Biondi – Pool/Getty Images

3. Lidl-Trek

What have we seen? As usual Trek had a very casual approach to opening weekend, they really seem to be the most hardcore subscribers to the old “can’t both crush Omloop and Ronde” line of thought. But they certainly didn’t embarrass themselves and had some positive indicators even if the big results weren’t there. With Pedersen stepping into the lineup they should be formidable again.
What’s new? Most importantly they’ve added Tim Declerckq to provide working muscle but there’s also a lot of excitement at the prospect of Jonathan Milan adding another sharp dimension to their game, In Omloop/KBK we saw Toms Skuijns being a huge weapon but sadly he’s too good at too many things and won’t be a part of the cobbles lineup in the coming weeks.
What’s their problem? Much like in Sanremo the other day the general feel is that Stuyven/Pedersen are very very good, just not the absolute best when it comes down to it. And they don’t quite have a viable plan on how to overcome that gap. Pogacar’s absence in Flanders may be better news for Lidl-Trek than for anyone else, the supersonic Kwaremont climbing hijinx really hit their chances more than anyone else and a more “normal” Ronde should work in their favor.

4. Team UAE

What have we seen? Surprising things really for a team we don’t quite see as one for April unless Pogacar decides to parachute in and dominate. Politt and Wellens were major factors in opening weekend and the new kid Antonio Morgado has been spectacular in the smaller midweek races. Even without The Tufted One they can be a factor on the cobbles.
What’s new? Nils Politt adds massive power, if not much brains, to UAE’s cobble line-up. That alone elevates them to relevancy, especially in the big monuments, but they also now have a solid sprint set-up for races like Brugge and Scheldeprijs so they are quite complete now.
What’s their problem? No one ever said Tim Wellens was dependable. He was great in Omloop and on paper he is a danger man in any race with enough hellingen but he could also just as easily disappear in races. And like Politt he really struggles to find that last bit of the puzzle that allows him to win the important races. For that they would have needed Pogi, without him it’s easy to see a lot of strong placings and no wins.

Photo by Luc Claessen/Getty Images

5. Lotto-Dstny

What have we seen? A fluctuating performance curve from Arnaud De Lie who is the crux of their classics squad. Flashes of brilliance but also signs that things aren’t running 100% smooth this year. After the gamble of skipping Kuurne and aiming for his local race Le Samyn backfired and ended in a crash it’s been a grumpy bull. Luckily for Lotto the season has otherwise been splendid but the Belgians are looking to De Lie to fulfill his promise.
What’s new? The expectations and pressure on Arnaud De Lie. The squad is similar otherwise with solid support for the cobbles, Campenaerts to liven things up and Menten to grind out some unglamorous but essential sprint wins and podiums in smaller races. But this is the year everyone is looking for big things to happen from De Lie in big races and that’s a first for him. A lot hangs on how he can handle it and handle a little adversity.
What’s their problem? They’re essentially a one man show. Campenaerts will need some small miracle to pull off a win from his escapades, as enjoyable and admirable as they are, and the rest of the squad is good for some honorable top 15s normally. So miracle boy needs to deliver at some point.

6. Movistar

What have we seen? Pigs fly? Movistar in a cobbles powerpoll? Ok maybe they are a little bit here as a lark, but not really. Oier Lazkano’s Kuurne (and Clasica Jaen) kinda give them a deserved spot up there. And there’s decent people around him too in Garcia Cortina, Jacobs and Norsgaard so this is a real thing now.
What’s new? Spain might have a new classics ace in Lazkano if things continue the way they’re going. Plus they’ve done the hip thing and picked up an Italian track guy with classics potential in Manlio Moro. Add a Belgian DS in Roelandts who knows how the sauce is made in this part of the world and you have something.
What’s their problem? This is essentially a one-man team apart unless you rate Gaviria’s chances in the sprintier races (I don’t anymore, I gave up) since Cortina for whatever reason isn’t doing the coming cobbles races which seems an odd choice. Unfortunately Lazkano is apparently still quite uncomfortable with the pressure and expectations that come with all that promise but if they can get him in the right headspace it could be a fantastic spring in Flanders for Movi.

7. Intermarche-Wanty

What have we seen? Biniam Girmay seems to be somewhere near his 2022 self again and they’ve been visibly present in most of the classics. Top result is Rex winning Le Samyn which is a big one for a local team even if it might not be much of an indicator for the biggest races to come.
What’s new? Vito Braet has come on from the Flanders talent program and seems to be making a direct impact, he’s already ready for these races. Other than that it’s mainly the same old gang and the key seems to be finding new ways to have Girmay fit training, racing and travels back home work more seamlessly in order to bring more consistency.

Photo by Luc Claessen/Getty Images

What’s their problem? They are still essentially a moneyball squad of plucky outsiders fighting to produce a whole that is bigger than the sum of its parts and in todays high octane World Tour that’s a tough ask. They really need their diamond in the rough Girmay to be at the very best we know he’s capable of to reach the real heights. And so far they can’t quite seem to get him there.

8. Decathlon-Ag2r La Mondiale

What have we seen? Believe it or not, Oliver Naessen back near the front of bike races. Not a trajectory anyone was expecting. Maybe a little more space without old Greg around served him well? Either way he led a plucky band of franco-belgians to some decent early results.
What’s new?Twentyone year old Pierre Gautherat is strictly speaking not new since he in his second year at Ag2r but he clearly appears to have made big strides forward. While the weight is still on Naessen, many eyes might be on him to see where the Decathlon classics future might be heading.
What’s their problem? Oliver Naessen doesn’t win you the big races. He doesn’t even win you the medium sized races frankly and chances of that suddenly changing are slim, especially when the Galacticos show up in full form. So Decathlon are likely looking for some honorable top 10s in reality.

9 Groupama-FDJ

What have we seen? They’ve had one of this spring’s revelations in Laurence Pithie even if it hasn’t quite paid off in actual results. Meanwhile Stefan Küng is quite obviously slowly working up his diesel to be primed for early April so it’s hard to judge based on that. The proof will be in the Monument Pudding.
What’s new? Essentially that their youth movement is edging ever closer to maturity. Their biggest young aces Gregoire and Martinez really aren’t going to be of any help on the cobbles though so they are counting on the next tier guys like Pithie, Askey and Watson to take steps from being terrific Coupe de France sharks to being factors in the classics
What’s their problem? Küng is a beast but no one so far has any earthly idea how to actually convert that into getting him that first big big race win. Madouas will likely parachute in to produce some strong placing like he usually does. The kiddos mentioned will likely do well, they’re simply too good not to. But, and it’s a big but I cannot lie, there really is no sense that there is someone at Groupama with some master plan to make all these pieces fit together into what could be a classics powerhouse to challenge the Bigs. Not yet anyway.

10 Soudal-QuickStep

What have we seen? I’ll tell you what we haven’t seen, which is Pat Lefevere’s head exploding (or him at least spewing a gallon of acid in a newspaper column) but that really says way more about how the focus of this team has shifted than it does about the team’s performance. They had their usual disappointing Omloop but then didn’t bounce back in Kuurne, in fact they were perhaps even more of a non-factor. Merlier is essentially saving their bacon with the promise of more sprint wins in semi-classics. It’s not the glamorous way but it gets the job done. Sort of.
What’s new? Fast kids. Like always at QuickStep, when things look like they’re going downhill Pat pulls some crazy talents out his Mallorca tanned backside and suddenly things start to look kinda hot again. Luke Lamperti is the classics relevant guy this year and all indications are it’s panning out well. The other classic Lef-style gamble made this year is bringing Gianni “The Jerk” Moscon and see if they can do the old QS magic and rejuvenate a fading star’s career with a carrot / bull-whip of a low wage/high bonus one-year contract. How well that is working is still TBD but I will say it’s not looking like a miracle resurrection so far. Ronde van Vlaanderen is on Easter Sunday though so…….
What’s their problem? They just don’t have the best or the strongest classics guys on their roster anymore. They have decent second tier guys, a bruised confidence and perhaps a little bit of an identity crisis regarding how to take races on now in this new reality they’re living. How that develops depends a great deal on if their hot new kids can make them rise from the ashes like they have done before, and if so how fast? Big wins and podiums (outside sprint wins for Timmy in dubious races like Scheldeprijs) this year seems like a stretch.