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HomeCyclingAMSTEL'24 Preview: Mathieu van der Poel to Keep Winning?

AMSTEL’24 Preview: Mathieu van der Poel to Keep Winning?


2024 Amstel Gold Race Preview: The cobbled Classics are now just dust in the wind and via the Brabantse Pijl, we move onto the hilly Classics. The Amstel Gold Race is this Sunday, April 14th and the type of riders changes from the rough roads specialists to the ones that can climb, except maybe one… Mathieu van der Poel. There are other possible winners, we list the favourites and look at the course and history.


Eddy Merckx ‘only’ won Amstel twice

The Amstel History
The Amstel Gold Race was first run in 1966, making it one of the youngest Classics. The Dutch race was a dream of Herman Krott who ran the Amstel Bier team, a team which nurtured riders like Fedor den Hertog, Joop Zoetemelk, Gerrie Knetemann, Gert-Jan Theunisse and Leo van Vliet, but he was working on a Dutch Classic. He wanted a race that would be on a par with the Tour of Flanders and Milano-Sanremo. His intended route was from Amsterdam to Maastricht, but that turned out to be unfeasible. Breda was start town and the finish was in Meerssen and held on Queen’s Day (Koninginnedag) 1966.

Stablinski Anquetil
The first Amstel winner – Jean Stablinski, here with Jacques Anquetil

The winner of the first edition was Jean Stablinski. A Polish, naturalised Frenchman, was also a World champion, a Classics and Vuelta a España winner. It was Stablinski last big win, for Krott he was a big fish to start the list of winner. The Amstel Gold Race is not one of the Monuments, but the list of winners contains all the big names: Eddy Merckx (twice), Gerrie Knetemann (twice), Freddy Maertens, Jan Raas (five times), Steven Rooks, Joop Zoetemelk, Jelle Nijdam, Eric Van Lancker, Adrie van der Poel, Frans Maassen, Johan Museeuw, Bjarne Riis, Michael Boogerd, Erik Zabel, Erik Dekker, Michele Bartoli, Alexandre Vinokourov, Davide Rebellin, Fränk Schleck, Philippe Gilbert (four times), Enrico Gasparotto, Mathieu van der Poel, Michał Kwiatkowski, Wout van Aert and Tadej Pogačar.


Three of the top Dutch riders of the 70s and 80s: The late Gerrie Knetemann, Jan Raas and Hennie Kuiper in the 1977 Amstel Gold Race. This was the first Amstel win for Raas when he rode for Frisol, his other four wins were for Raleigh. Knetemann won twice, first in 1974 and then again 11 years later in 1985. Kuiper never won his home race.

The home nation has the most winners with eighteen victories, followed by Belgium on thirteen and seven for Italy. The last home win dates from 2019, when Mathieu van der Poel was the last Dutchman to win in 2019. In 2021 Wout van Aert beat Tom Pidcock by a millimetre. In 2022 Michał Kwiatkowski out-sprinted Benoît Cosnefroy, after the Pole had attacked with 21 kilometres to go and then last year Tadej Pogačar stamped all over the race for a solo win (see below).

Amstel
Race founder Herman Krott

Race founder Krott passed away in 2010. In 1996, Krott handed over the job of race director to Leo van Vliet, who will be at the head of his 28th Amstel race on Sunday. It will also be Leo van Vliet’s last time at the helm of the Amstel Gold Race. In 2025 the Amstel Gold Race will have a new organiser and Flanders Classics will take over, although Van Vliet will still remain race director. Krott’s legacy is remembered by the Herman Krott Trophy, for the most combative rider in the Amstel race.

Valkenburg - Netherlands - wielrennen - cycling - cyclisme - radsport Michal KWIATKOWSKI (Poland / Team Sky) - Philippe GILBERT (Belgium / Team Quick Step - Floors) pictured during the Amstel Gold Race 2017 - foto NV/PN/Cor Vos © 2017
Philippe Gilbert won Amstel four times

The 2023 Amstel Gold Race
Tadej Pogačar was the top favourite before the start of the Amstel Gold Race and lived up to his No.1 billing. The Slovenian put in his final attack on the Keutenberg, 30 kilometres from the finish. He dropped Tom Pidcock and Ben Healy to solo to victory. Healy was second and Pidcock just held on for third.

amstel23

The break of the day came early. Mathias Vacek (Trek-Segafredo), Leon Heinschke (DSM), Mattéo Vercher (TotalEnergies), Ward Vanhoof (Flanders-Baloise), Tobias Ludvigsson & Alessandro Fedeli (Q36.5) and Marin Urianstad (Uno-X) got together and built up a lead of 5 minutes. It wasn’t long before UAE Team Emirates, for top favourite Tadej Pogačar, started chasing. The break still had a lead when the started the Maasberg, Adsteeg, Korenweg and Nijswillerweg, the first main climbs of the day. Ninety kilometres from the finish, Alpecin-Deceuninck started the finalé. The Belgian team were without Mathieu van der Poel, but were not going to sit back and wait for Pogačar. Gianni Vermeersch was the instigator of a very strong chasing group of 15 riders. Vermeersch was joined by top favourite Pogačar, Tom Pidcock, Magnus Sheffield, Tosh Van der Sande, Ben Healy, Lars van den Berg, Kevin Geniets, Quentin Pacher, Axel Zingle, Alexey Lutsenko, Christopher Juul-Jensen, Matteo Sobrero, Arjen Livyns and Andreas Kron. Bahrain Victorious had completely missed the move and had to chase. The 7 early escapees had already been caught and dropped. In the peloton it was up to Bahrain Victorious and Jumbo-Visma, who also had to chase after Van der Sande dropped out.

amstel23
Two attacks from Pogačar

With 50 kilometres to go, there was a big crash in the peloton. The 10 remaining front riders raced on to the next climbs; the Gulperberg, Kruisberg and the tough Eyserbosweg. Just before the Kruisberg, Pogačar had to change bikes. With Pogačar back in the first group, the climb of the Eyserbosweg was getting closer. On the steepest sections of this climb, the big favourite decided to make a move for the first time. As a result, the leading group completely exploded and only Pidcock was able to follow the Slovenian. It was clearly too fast for all the others, although Ben Healy managed to return after the Eyserbosweg. Lutsenko and Kron also tried to pull back the leader, but Pogačar, Pidcock and Healy were not going to be caught. On the particularly steep Keutenberg, with ramps above 20%, the race was put to the sword. Pogačar gave it another strong effort. Healy was the first rider to crack and then Pidcock lost hold just before the top. Pogačar was now solo with 28 kilometres to go. Pidcock and Healy were at 15 seconds, but on the flatter road, Pogačar stretched his lead. The Slovenian started the Geulhemmerberg, the penultimate climb, with a lead of 30 seconds. On this climb the lights went out for Pidcock, who was unable to follow Healy. The Irishman of EF Education-EasyPost got closer to Pogačar on his own. Pogačar was suffering in the final and Healy got within 20 seconds, but the Slovenian didn’t let him get any closer. He extended his lead in the last 10 kilometres and had plenty of time to enjoy his first Amstel Gold Race victory. The 22 year-old Healy finished second in his first Amstel participation. A very tired Pidcock just held Lutsenko and Kron off for 3rd place.

amstel23
Healy was second

2023 Amstel Gold Race Result:
1. Tadej Pogačar (Slo) UAE Team Emirates in 6.02.02
2. Ben Healy (Irl) EF Education-EasyPost at 0:38
3. Tom Pidcock (GB) INEOS Grenadiers at 2:14
4. Andreas Kron (Den) Lotto Dstny
5. Alexey Lutsenko (Kaz) Astana Qazaqstan.

The Parcours:
The route is more or less the same as last year, although there is one change. From this year, the Amstel Gold will not start from the Vrijthof, but from the Maastricht Market. The race has been starting from the capital of Limburg since 1998, but since 2019 the riders were presented on the Vrijthof. From this year, the presentation will return to the Market.

Amstel 2024
2024 Amstel Gold Race map

After the start, the riders head north to Sittard and will have the first obstacle of the day, the Maasberg, a short cobbled climb. The Adsteeg, Bergseweg and Korenweg come later. There is no Cauberg in the early part of the race, as there was before 2023. The famous climb in Valkenburg will be climbed twice instead of three times. The first passage is after 172 kilometres. Between kilometres 95 and 130 there are some longer climbs, including the Camerig, which is one of the longest climbs in South Limburg and the Netherlands, and the one to the Drielandenpunt in Vaals. Then the tough Gulperberg from Gulpen, the climb where Mathieu van der Poel attacked in 2019, on the way to his victory. After the first passage at the finish in Berg en Terblijt, just after the first climb of the Cauberg there are 80 kilometres to go.

Amstel Gold Race 2024
2024 Amstel Gold Race profile

The real finale starts with just over 40 kilometres to go with the Gulperberg, now from Gulpen. From the descent on the other side from Gulpen, the riders then go via the Geuzeweg and Cappucijnenweg on narrow, twisting roads to the foot of the Kruisberg. Immediately afterwards there is the Eyserbosweg, after which the Fromberg and the very steep Keutenberg come very quickly. After the Cauberg has been climbed for the second and final time, the final lap starts 16 kilometres before the finish. The Geulhemmerberg and Bemelerberg, which had to be climbed earlier, could be the deciders. The top of the Bemelerberg is 7 kilometres from the finish. Once at the summit, the riders turn left towards Terblijt. Via the Rijnsbergweg to the Sibberweg, where the riders will pass under red flag of the last kilometre. The finish line is on the Rijksweg.

amstel23
Tadej Pogačar on the attack last year

Climbs
1. Maasberg (0.3km at 5.1%) – 241km
2. Adsteeg (0.7km at 4.7%) – 222km
3. Bergseweg (2.5km at 3.3%) – 205km
4. Korenweg (0.9km at 5.7%) – 203km
5. Nijswillerweg (1.3km at 2.7%) – 198km
6. National road N278 (3km at 2.9%) – 189km
7. Wolfsberg (0.km at 3.4%) – 168km
8. Loorberg (1.4km at 5.3%) – 165km
9. Schweibergerweg (2.3km at 4.6%) – 154km
10. Camerig (3.7km at 4.2%) – 147km
11. Drielandenpunt (3km at 3.8%) – 135km
12. Gemmenich (0.9km at 6%) – 130km
13. Vijlenerbos (1.4km at 5.5%) – 127km
14. Eperheide (2.4km at 4.7%) – 118km
15. Gulperberg from Party (0.5km at 9.8%) – 109km
16. Plettenberg (1km at 3.5%) – 105km
17. Eyserweg (2km at 4.6%) – 103 km
18. St. Remigiusstraat (1.4km at 5.2%) – 99km
19. Vrakelberg (0.5km at 7.6%) – 94km
20. Sibbergrubbe (1.8km at 4%) – 86km
21. Cauberg (0.8km at 6.6%) – 81km
22. Geulhemmerberg (0.7km at 6.6%) – 76km
23. Keerderberg (1.8km at 3.6%) – 70km
24. Bemelerberg (1km at 4.4%) – 66km
25. Loorberg (1.4km at 5.3%) – 51km
26. Gulperberg from Gulpen (0.9km at 5.5%) – 43km
27. Kruisberg (0.7km at 7.3%) – 38km
28. Eyserbosweg (1.1km at 7.6%) – 37km
29. Fromberg (1.7km at 3.8%) – 33km
30. Keutenberg (1.6km at 5.2%) – 29km
31. Cauberg (0.8km at 6.6%) – 18km
32. Geulhemmerberg (0.7km at 6.6%) – 13km
33. Bemelerberg (1km at 4.4%) – 7km.

E3 Saxo 2024
Amstel Gold Race for Mathieu? Why not?

The Favourites
The Amstel Gold Race is the first of the hilly Classics and is a new chapter in the cycling season, where different riders take on the one-day races. The Amstel Gold Race is not for the pure climbers, but the strong, punchy riders in the mould of Philippe Gilbert, Van Aert and Van der Poel. Cobble riders can double up, as those three have shown. Amstel is not a course (these days) for a sprinter, but can suit a GT rider. The race organisers were expecting a fight between Remco Evenepoel and Mathieu van der Poel, but now the Belgian won’t be lining up for the Amstel due to his injuries from the Itzulia Basque Country. The current World road champion, Mathieu van der Poel, will be there, but will the Alpecin-Deceuninck rider still have the phenomenal form he has had for the last few weeks? Well, he has only raced five times so far this season, so he should still be sharp. Can his team dominate on a hilly course? This may be his Achilles heel. But don’t forget he won the Amstel Gold in 2019 without much team help.

amstel19
Van der Poel couldn’t believe his 2019 Amstel win

Van der Poel has so far won the E3 Saxo Classic, Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix and has said that his season has already been a success and anything more is a bonus. It’s not often you hear Amstel (and maybe Liège) being referred to as a bonus. But with that statement it shows that MvdP is not under any pressure. Five years ago Van der Poel won the Amstel Gold just when we thought his race was over for him, but he powered back from behind to swoop past Simon Clarke, Jakob Fuglsang and Julian Alaphilippe for a win that even he didn’t expect. Of course Van der Poel isn’t the only Alpecin-Deceuninck rider in the Netherlands on Sunday. Jasper Philipsen is said to be starting, but it shouldn’t suit him, but Søren Kragh Andersen, Quinten Hermans and Axel Laurance will help their leader and might carry on the in the high spirits of the team for themselves.

Roubaix 2024
Tom Pidcock should be at the front

Tom Pidcock nearly won in 2021, it took the photo-finish to split him and Wout van Aert. He should be in battle with Van der Poel, but after his crash checking out the time trial course of the Itzulia Basque Country, it wasn’t known what condition the INEOS Grenadiers rider would be in. Pidcock didn’t suffer any fractures, but he did have a painful hip. He did ride Paris-Roubaix on Sunday and held up well to finish 17th. He should be back on form for the Amstel Gold Race.

amstel22
Michal Kwiatkowski knows his Amstel Gold Race

INEOS Grenadiers will also have double Amstel Gold winner, Michal Kwiatkowski. The Polish rider has so far not shown much form, but in 2022 he also didn’t have much of a spring before coming out on top, That year Benoît Cosnefroy thought he had won and was even given the win by the race jury, but after a closer look at the photo-finish gave it to Kwiatkowski. Cosnefroy has unfinished business with Amstel and has good form at the moment. He recently won Paris-Camembert and was fourth in the Région Pays de la Loire Tour.

amstel22
Benoît Cosnefroy has something to prove – He thought he had won in 2022

Ben Healy will be at the start of the Amstel Gold Race with the ambition to finish one step higher than last year. The Irish champion of EF Education-EasyPost, like Cosnefroy, has finished second. Last year, Healy was the only rider who could put up any resistance to Tadej Pogačar. This year it could be a two-man battle between the Irishman and a certain Dutch World champion.

amstel23
Ben Healy to move one step up?

Mattias Skjelmose has shown that he is a man to be reckoned with. On Sunday it will be up to better climbers like Skjelmose to make the race as hard as possible to put Van der Poel in trouble and hopefully distance him on the climbs in the finale.

Paris-Nice 2024
Mattias Skjelmose to make it hard for Van der Poel on the climbs

You can’t dismiss the Visma | Lease a Bike team. Wout van Aert won’t be there, but with Matteo Jorgenson and Tiesj Benoot, the team still has a chance. We don’t know how Jorgenson will handle the Limburg hills, as he has been ill, but if he is at 100% then he can hold Van der Poel. Amstel also suits Benoot, he was third in the Amstel Gold Race two years ago.

Omloop 2024
Matteo Jorgenson can cope with MvdP

UAE Team Emirates wont have last year’s winner, Tadej Pogačar as the Slovenian will only ride Liège-Bastogne-Liège in build-up to the Giro d’Italia. The Emirates team will have Brandon McNulty, João Almeida, Marc Hirschi and maybe Juan Ayuso. These four are all top performers, especially Ayuso and McNulty, both have been winning this season. The only problem might be that they haven’t ridden Amstel before.

Valencia 2024
Brandon McNulty will be up there in Amstel

Maxim Van Gils of Lotto Dstny and Dylan Teuns of Israel-Premier Tech could Belgium’s hopes on Sunday. Van Gils has shown great promise this season, he was third in Strade Bianche, seventh in Milano-Sanremo, second in the GP Miguel Indurain and finished seventh in the Amstel last year. Teuns was strong in the Tour of Flanders and finished eight.

Andalucia 2024
Maxim Van Gils has looked good

Michael Matthews rode a very good Tour of Flanders, although he was declassed from third to eleventh at the finish. Matthews was understandably disappointed with the decision, but it might also push him to give that bit extra in a race that he has had five top ten finishes, with a third place in 2015.

Castillon 2024
Matthews likes Amstel and has the form

Those are the probable protagonists of the 2024 Amstel Gold Race, but there are others that should be mentioned: Matej Mohorič has started the Dutch classic eight times, but his best place was ninth place in 2021, but the race can suit his race style. For Movistar there are Alex Aranburu and Ruben Guerreiro, these two could cause a surprise.

Valencia 2024
Matej Mohorič can be a surprise winner as we have seen in the past

Then there are the ‘outsiders’. They include: Maximilian Schachmann, who was 5th in 2019 and 3rd in 2021 & Sergio Higuita of BORA-hansgrohe. Neilson Powless & Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost), Valentin Madouas, Stefan Küng & Romain Grégoire of Groupama-FDJ, Warren Barguil (dsm-firmenich PostNL), Michael Woods & Stephen Williams (Israel-Premier Tech), Andreas Kron (Lotto Dstny), Kévin Vauquelin (Arkéa-B&B Hotels), Alexey Lutsenko & Ide Schelling (Astana Qazaqstan), Pello Bilbao (Bahrain Victorious), Andrea Bagioli (Lidl-Trek), Matteo Trentin (Tudor), Francesco Busatto (Intermarché-Wanty) and Paul Lapeira (Decathlon AG2R). Then there is the ‘WildCard’ team of Tour de Tietema-Unibet, they might not be there just to make up the numbers. Watch out for Hartthijs de Vries and Jelle Johannink.

Basque Country 2024
Outside tip: Romain Grégoire

The Top Favourites:
No.1: Mathieu van der Poel
Very Probable: Tom Pidcock, Ben Healy
Possible: Maxim Van Gils, Juan Ayuso
Maybe: Michael Matthews, Brandon McNulty, Dylan Teuns, Benoît Cosnefroy.
* The start-list might change before Sunday. *

Flanders 2024
Still top – Mathieu van der Poel

# Keep it PEZ for one hell of a ‘Race Report’ on Sunday and all the news in EUROTRASH Monday. #

* Thanks to ProCyclingStats and WielerFlits for facts and figures. *


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