In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Anti-doping’s continuing struggles; AI and cycling; Dauphine clues to the Tour de France; NIL impact on Collegiate club sports; Toyota pulls out of Olympics; U.S. upsets pakistan…
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- Anti-Doping’s Continuing Struggles
- Beware the Impact of AI on Pro Cyclists
- Tour de France Clues from the Dauphine
- NIL Impact on Collegiate Club Sports
- Toyota Pulls Out of Olympic Sponsorship
- Tiny U.S. Upsets Cricket Behemoth Pakistan
No end to doping
Recently, all has been quiet in the trenches of WADA, as it battles to retain its legitimacy as the overseer of global anti-doping. However, a recent study hinted that a new frontline may soon open and potentially overshadow the Chinese doping scandal currently underway. Doping Prevalence among U.S. Elite Athletes Subject to Drug Testing under the World Anti-Doping Code was published online on May 20 and presents new data of self-reported doping by U.S. athletes, including steroids and anabolic agents like SARMS, blood manipulation, misuse of therapeutic use exemptions, and – in a first for these kinds of studies – the possibility that gene editing is already in play. The survey provides the first major view into athlete-reported doping since an earlier study also showed a high prevalence in World Athletics during the 2011 world championships – essentially confirming that the problem hasn’t really been mitigated by better testing, steeper consequences, or education efforts. As pointed out by many anti-doping observers over the years, the risk vs. reward value proposition to cheat is skewed because the testing is inconsistent, methods to avoid detection are effective, and missed tests can game the system to the athletes’ competitive advantage. While many have been deriding WADA’s handling of the China affair, the report redirected some heat onto USADA by inferring that U.S. sports are rife with undetected doping. It bears repeating that the Olympics are just two months away, athletes are dissatisfied and worried about the anti-doping system, and there seems to be no solution in sight without better anti-doping agency coordination, cooperation, and deterrents – and perhaps a truce among its warring oversight factions.
U.S. sports are rife with undetected doping
An interesting and important recent article by former Canadian pro racer Michael Barry delves into the impact – positive and negative – that artificial intelligence could have on pro cycling. Just like other sports, cycling has become increasingly obsessed with detailed data sets and new analytical techniques over the last several years – using a wide range of algorithms to assess everything from nutritional changes on performance, sleep quality to body weight, heart rate to on-bike power, and others that purport to predict performance. And AI is likely to help make the collection, analysis and interpretation of all that data even more precise, potentially “improving performance and making races even faster.” Drawing parallels to the analytics frenzy which transformed baseball two decades ago, the article delves into how this process could affect both individual cyclists and cycling teams – raising issues of personal privacy, team interests and incentives versus individual interests and individual value maximization. Barry also cautions against relying too much on purely statistical data, underlining the critical fact that simple numbers can’t measure everything that goes into making a successful cyclist – tactical smarts, psychological focus, teamwork skills and character. The article concludes that cyclists need to be very cautious in the collection, interpretation and sharing of their personal data, while at the same time understanding that “their value is in their biometric data, and that AI is coming for that data. With the development of future AI modeling, maintaining control of biometric data will put the riders in control of their future, not their teams.”
2025 can be a recovery year for the big bike brands
Our partners at Wielerflits have been busy covering races and personalities from across the sport but have also kept an eye on the health of the cycling industry. Last week, they revisited the health of the big cycling brands and the marketplace for recreational bikes in Western Europe – often a strong indicator for the overall industry direction. Their recent discussions with industry leaders in a variety of bicycle and accessory manufacturing hints at a rebound for the depressed market, but not until the overstock is eliminated through continuous discounted sales that may go into the Fall of 2024. Many of those interviewed with the article believe 2025 can be a recovery year, and for more details, we encourage you to read the article on the Wielerflits.nl website (use of Google’s Chrome browser translation feature or similar, recommended).
24-year-old quickly ascending American star Matteo Jorgenson
The Critérium du Dauphiné wrapped up last weekend, with a few interesting clues for the upcoming Tour de France. Primož Roglič eked out an unexpectedly tight eight-second overall victory over 24-year-old quickly ascending American star Matteo Jorgenson and 36 seconds over breakout Canadian Derek Gee. The impressive result from Jorgenson could potentially have him heading into the sport’s biggest race as one of, or even the designated leader for one of cycling’s biggest teams, Visma-Lease a Bike. Additionally, despite winning, Roglič’s pair of crashes and minor fade on the final stage, along with Remco Evenepoel’s climbing troubles, now raises the serious question of whether anyone – other than a healthy Jonas Vingegaard, which also seems unlikely – can challenge Tadej Pogačar at the Tour.
Other than a healthy Jonas Vingegaard, can anyone challenge Tadej Pogačar at the Tour?
As we mentioned last week, Jorgenson taking the start line at the Tour as a bona fide GC contender could be a big opportunity for American cycling, and could potentially help open up the notoriously difficult-to-crack massive American market. In addition, considering that American Sepp Kuss, last year’s Vuelta winner, will also take the start line as a teammate of Jorgenson, and possibly as a key mountain domestique, this could set up an almost irresistible storyline for the mainstream media – particularly if Vingegaard is still struggling to return from injuries. Outside of his versatility – which has seen him win a WorldTour cobbled classic (Dwars door Vlaanderen), a WorldTour stage race (Paris-Nice), and 2nd place at the Dauphiné, in the same season – Jorgenson’s impressive poise and confidence under pressure suggest that he could leap the gulf between simply being a talented rider to becoming one of the true stars of the sport.
Froome not Woods to the Tour?
After press reports suggested a rift between Israel-PremierTech teammates Chris Froome and Mike Woods over Tour start spots, the sudden and unexpected rise of Derek Gee has given the team a much-needed change of storyline. Gee’s result highlights the alleged battle within the IPT team – where half of the roster seems to consist of previously undiscovered young talents quickly turning into WorldTour-level race winners on one side, contrasted with a number of expensive but largely unproductive veterans on the other. It will be interesting to see how IPT balances this dichotomy heading into the Tour, since the team finds itself under even more pressure than before to select the strongest possible team. This may leave the team with less room to take into account the feedback of sponsors, some of whom apparently want Froome in the Tour lineup.
What can Froome do at the Tour?
Last week, we dove into the role Name/Image/Likeness (NIL) deals have had in dismantling the amateur model in U.S. sports, and creating a new framework for elite athlete economics. But significantly, the NIL impact has now reached collegiate club sports, and has the potential to become a factor in developing U.S. cycling in the future. To underscore the finances driving change in previously amateur competition, highly-sought football recruits visiting the campus of perennial NCAA championship contender, the University of Texas, were wooed not just by the training facilities, historic Bowl Game wins, and legacy of renowned academic achievements – but also a fleet of exclusive Lamborghini sports cars earmarked for the most highly-desired athletes. At a small scale, the investment bet being played on collegiate club rodeo could be a smart one considering the sport’s intrinsic and loyal audience, something which it shares with competitive cycling. While no one in our sport could reasonably expect to offer a Lamborghini to a promising collegiate rider, the capability to provide high end racing bikes, riding kit, and a stipend might be the difference between developing the next great U.S. champion and missing out on a golden opportunity to push the sport to new heights. If nothing else, the NIL marketplace and its potential progressive influence into cycling is worth a second look.
Toyota not happy with the Olympics
In a notable but generally overlooked development around the upcoming Olympics, Toyota announced that it was pulling out of its prestigious top-tier Olympic Partner role following the Paris games. The contract, worth US$835 million, was reportedly the IOC’s largest sponsorship deal. Beyond widespread dissatisfaction with the way in which the delayed COVID-era Tokyo Olympics played out (with widespread claims of corruption and huge cost overruns), the Toyota executives were apparently also dissatisfied at how the IOC has used sponsorship money. In particular, the company was apparently concerned that “funds have not been used effectively to support athletes and promote sports.” Considering that only some 15 major global conglomerates are part of the elite Olympic Partners (TOP) program – that includes companies like Visa, Coca-Cola, P&G, Samsung and Deloitte – this kind of proactive statement from a key partner appears to be a strong shot across the bow of the Olympic ship.
SDWorx-Protime (nearly) dominated the Tour of Britain
Women’s pro road racing had a busy week of stage racing, with the elite three-stage Vuelta Ciclista Catalunya and the resurrected four-stage WWT Tour of Britain both ending this weekend. Both events provided teams and top riders with valuable multi-day preparation for the upcoming women’s Giro d’Italia and Tour de France Femmes races later this summer, with Visma-LAB taking Catalunya courtesy of the evergreen Marianne Vos, and Lotte Kopecky of SDWorx-Protime winning in Britain. The Tour of Britain provided a remarkable finish on stage four, when SDWorx-Protime attempted a clean sweep of all the stages as it had dominantly achieved at the Itzulia race earlier this season. Kopecky and Lorena Wiebes led out Christine Majerus for victory on the final stage, but Majerus celebrated too early and inadvertently gifted the win to the fast-finishing Ruby Roseman-Gannon of Liv-AlUla. In one sense, the build up by SDWorx for the stage racing season puts them in the driver’s seat for the rest of the summer campaign, but the gaffe by Majerus mirrors similar mistakes by other riders in the men’s and women’s WT this season: always be aware of your position in a sprint, lest you throw away a clear victory. Roseman-Gannon’s win gives the Liv team a boost, though, and in addition to Mavi Garcia’s recent win at Andalucia, highlights the depth of the women’s pro cycling field.
Top action in Catalunya
In perhaps the week’s best feel-good story, the heavy underdog U.S. team defeated the powerhouse Pakistani side in the International Cricket T20 World Cup – a shorter format version of the traditional game that is more attuned to modern sporting audiences. The victory illustrates the remarkable rise for the sport in the U.S., and as mentioned by CNN Sports, is “testimony to a dynamic and highly educated South Asian community that is becoming increasingly prosperous and connected in U.S. business and society and politically more important.” The victory is a coming of age for the sport in U.S. circles, and it has been bolstered by an influx of investment capital to build up team development projects and stadiums to support a national T20 league. While no one expects cricket to overtake baseball in the American sporting lexicon, that may not be the ultimate prize; the global audience for men’s and women’s cricket far exceeds the reach of the MLB, with the IPCL (India) and national leagues in the U.K., Australia, and South Africa driving big dollars, media deals and product marketing engines. A U.S. presence in that market could be a major disruptor, especially if the new national league gains momentum; how that plays out structurally and economically could be a great case study for another U.S. niche sport which seems perennially poised to break through – pro cycling.
underdog U.S. team defeated the powerhouse Pakistani side in the International Cricket T20 World Cup
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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