With 40 kilometres left of stage four in the Tour of the Basque Country, the odds on the Tour de France winner were very low.
Wrong place at the wrong time
Indeed, Jonas Vingegaard was the outright favourite to make it three Tour de France wins in as many years. With 39 kilometres left, however, no one could be sure that the Dane would even take part in the summer showdown in France after a horror crash that saw him break multiple ribs as well as his collarbone.
Of course, Vingegaard wasn’t the only frontrunner for Tour de France glory affected with Primoz Roglic and Remco Evenepoel also injured in the pile-up. Sadly, though, the Dane has been the only rider removed from the official outright odds winner market on account of his injuries.
In short, the bookies don’t expect the Dane to be up and running for the start in Florence on June 29th, and as a result, bitter Slovenian rival Tadej Pogacar has been installed as the outright favourite as he wasn’t affected by virtue of the fact that he wasn’t competing in the race.
Had he been then it’s entirely likely that the Slovenian would have been neck-and-neck with Vingegaard at the time of the incident.
It should be said that Pogacar was quick to take to social media to express his well wishes to everyone caught up in the crash but the fact remains that should the Slovenian win his first Tour de France title since 2021, then this accident would have been a direct result.
Crashes are never something we want to see in cycling. Sadly today we saw a really nasty one.
Wishing my teammate Jay and all my comrades in the peloton a speedy recovery after their tough fall today🙏
— Tadej Pogačar (@TamauPogi) April 4, 2024
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”en” dir=”ltr”>Crashes are never something we want to see in cycling. Sadly today we saw a really nasty one. <br><br>Wishing my teammate Jay and all my comrades in the peloton a speedy recovery after their tough fall today🙏</p>— Tadej Pogačar (@TamauPogi) <a href=”https://twitter.com/TamauPogi/status/1775957225120415954?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>April 4, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
At least, Vingegaard was beginning to establish an ominous hold on the race and the growing feeling was that it would take something significant to stop his momentum on the roads of France where he has been so prolific.
As we now know, something seismic has now happened and a generational athlete might well see his legacy in the world’s most famous cycling race affected as a result.
Part of the tragedy is also down to the fact that Vingegaard was extremely selective about the tours he took part in; the Dane was only set to compete once more before the Tour de France began. That, however, is professional cycling in a nutshell where risk goes hand-in-hand with reward.
💛🇩🇰 Jonas Vingegaard wins the #TDF2022!
💛🇩🇰 Jonas Vingegaard remporte le #TDF2022 ! pic.twitter.com/QTd4ipsxNH
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) July 24, 2022
<blockquote class=”twitter-tweet”><p lang=”nl” dir=”ltr”>💛🇩🇰 Jonas Vingegaard wins the <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TDF2022?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TDF2022</a>!<br><br>💛🇩🇰 Jonas Vingegaard remporte le <a href=”https://twitter.com/hashtag/TDF2022?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>#TDF2022</a> ! <a href=”https://t.co/QTd4ipsxNH”>pic.twitter.com/QTd4ipsxNH</a></p>— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) <a href=”https://twitter.com/LeTour/status/1551263515993833472?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw”>July 24, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src=”https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js” charset=”utf-8″></script>
Put differently, a good showing in the Basque Country would have given Vingegaard the ideal preparation for the Tour de France but any unforeseen event might also see him ruled out of participating altogether. Regrettably, it was the latter and Vingegaard shouldn’t be judged too harshly for it.
The role luck plays in success
The reality in life is that any choice we make that ends up being successful requires a degree of luck. Whether that be the trivial task of choosing the right thing on a menu, the seriousness of changing careers, or even the enjoyment of trying to win while playing at an online casino.
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Ultimately though and away from a handy guide to the fairest casinos, the truth is that we need a slice or two of luck in life to achieve our goals.
A case of what should have been
In the unfortunate case of Jonas Vingegaard, he was not on the receiving end of the rub of the green and will, in all likelihood, now miss the planet’s most celebrated cycling race which he seemed destined to win. The Dane isn’t the first and certainly won’t be the last cyclist to meet his fate.
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