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Decoding the Data Behind Appalachian Trail FKTs – iRunFar


In September 2024, Tara Dower took the ultrarunning world by storm as she broke the overall Appalachian Trail fastest known time (FKT). This will likely be the FKT of the year, and it was covered by the iRunFar team immediately afterward and in a follow-up interview with Dower. In this article, I put a different spin on the existing coverage and dive into the data behind this and previous Appalachian Trail FKTs.

The Route: 2,189 miles of distance, 465,000 feet of elevation gain, 14 states.

The FKT: Fastest completion of the entire distance by foot. Can be completed in either direction.

How does Dower’s run compare to past performances? What does it take to set an FKT? How did Dower do it? Should I attempt the Appalachian Trail? Read on to find answers to all those questions.

Tara Dower Appalachian Trail FKT with bloody knee

Tara Dower during her Appalachian Trail fastest known time. Photo courtesy of Tara Dower.

Comparison to Past Performances

To start, how does Dower’s run compare to past performances? Well, there is no better way to visualize this than a bar chart race between Dower and other legends who completed the trail, such as Karel Sabbe, Joe “Stringbean” McConaughy, and Kristian Morgan. Note that Stringbean’s run was self-supported, and he still holds the FKT for a men’s self-supported completion. Dower, Sabbe, and Morgan all made use of support crews.

Moving Bar Chart Graphic To Compare Previous FKTs

Appalachian Trail Bar Chart Race

Gif depicting current and previous fastest known times on the Appalachian Trail, set by Tara Dower, Karel Sabbe, Joe “Stringbean” McConaughy, and Kristian Morgan.

While I have your attention, a note on the data. All numbers in this article are pulled from FKT tracking GPX files of the athletes. Some data recorded was cleaner than other data, and some data for older attempts (such as Scott Jurek’s, Jennifer Pharr-Davis, and Karl Meltzer’s) was not as complete, and hence I did not use it. You can read about the previous female record holder, Jennifer Pharr-Davis, in her post-run interview article.

I love bar chart races. The above bar chart race uses data from the top two current overall FKT holders for the Appalachian Trail in each respective direction, southbound and northbound. As you can see in the above visualization, Dower got off to a “slow” start compared to previous FKT holders. She fell behind the previous southbound record holder, Morgan, through day 11, before pulling away and making ground on the two previous northbound FKT holders. It wasn’t really until the final handful of days that Dower pulled ahead of Sabbe.

It is clear that the direction one is heading makes a significant difference on how runners progress through the trail. The southbound runners start by descending Mount Katahdin, but then face a very tough section through Maine and New Hampshire. The terrain and elevation gain through this portion of the trail is often described as the most brutal of the entire trail, and it is not very runnable, as those who have hiked there can attest. On the other hand, the northbound runners move faster through the initial portion, but ultimately hit the northeast section to end the journey.

Scott Jurek - 2021 Applachian Trail speed attempt

Scott Jurek during his 2021 Appalachian Trail speed attempt. Photo: Luis Escobar/@luis_escobar

The Route

Below is a map of the route from Maine to Georgia, and a chart depicting the elevation change along the way. With 2,189 miles and 465,000 feet of elevation gain, it is hard to quantify on a single graphic, but I hope this gives some insight into what the hikers and runners face on the way.

Map of the Appalachian Trail

Appalachian Trail map

A map of the Appalachian Trail. Image: United States. National Park Service. Appalachian Trail Project Office; Cartography, Inc, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

Chart Depicting the Elevation Profile of the Appalachian Trail

Appalachian Trail - Elevation Chart

The elevation profile of the Appalachian Trail, depicting south on the left and north on the right.

The Appalachian Trail passes through 14 states. The Appalachian Trail Conservancy has a good overview of what the trail consists of in each state. Each portion has its unique challenges, but it seems like the one thing every state agrees on is that the trail has rocks! Below is a chart showing the number of trail miles in each state.

Appalachian Trail by State

Appalachian Trail - Distance Breakdown By State

Bar chart breaking down the distance of the Appalachian Trail by state.

In the southbound direction, Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont take up a hefty portion at the beginning; then there is a significant time in Pennsylvania; then the most distance in any state with 557 miles, Virginia; and over 200 miles along the Tennessee/North Carolina border.

Going southbound versus northbound each offers unique challenges, and the difficulty of each section can vary year-to-year as well, depending on the weather. Ultimately, one must cover all 2,189 miles either way. Runners either start up front with the most difficult section, tackling it on fresh legs when headed southbound, or ease into it and finish with the climb up Katahdin if going northbound.

The Strava Files: What Dower Did Different

So how did Tara Dower do it? How did she cover the entire trail faster than any other human before her? In this next section I am going to dig into a few Strava files to use numbers to inform the answers to these questions. In recent years, runners attempting the Appalachian Trail have been tracking their progress and uploading it to Strava each day. This allows for an accurate picture of day-to-day progress. I will primarily focus on the Strava files of Dower and Morgan, as they have the most recent data (and hence, the cleanest files), and are the top two finishers for the southbound direction.

Let’s start by looking at the formula for distance, which is distance = rate × time. We know the distance is 2,189 miles in this equation. In most races, time is simply the elapsed time of the race — “time on trail.” By looking at the total elapsed time for each day in the Strava files (start of each day’s GPX recording until the end), we see that Morgan spent 706 hours on-trail, while Dower spent 718 hours. This puts Morgan’s rate (average pace) on the trail at 19:21 minutes per mile, which is faster than Dower’s average pace of 19:42 minutes per mile. See below for a day-by-day breakdown of mile pace.

Mile Pace Per Day

Appalachian Trail - Mile Pace

Line graph showing the average mile pace per day of Tara Dower and Kristian Morgan during their respective Appalachian Trail runs.

Wait a second, Morgan’s FKT was 45 days, four hours, and 27 minutes; Dower’s was 40 days, 18 hours, and six minutes. That brings us to the second component of the time equation — “time off trail.” In multi-day efforts, runners need to rest, eat, and sleep! Therefore, time = time on trail + time off trail.

It is not a pure test of speed, rather one of endurance and grit to keep on moving relentlessly forward day-after-day, maximizing the time on trail per day, while balancing it with adequate rest to keep going. Dower did this better than anyone before. While Morgan spent on average 15 hours and 41 minutes on trail per day, Dower put in 17-hour, 31-minute days. See the graphic below for a day-by-day breakdown of the two runners’ average time on trail per day.

Hours On Trail Per Day

Appalachian Trail - Time on Trail

Line graph showing the number of hours spent “on trail” per day by Tara Dower and Kristian Morgan during their respective Appalachian Trail runs.

While Morgan’s average pace on trail was faster, he spent more time off trail, and hence covered the 2,189 miles slower. By traveling at a slightly slower pace and putting in longer days, Dower broke the southbound record by over four days.

Conclusion

The Appalachian Trail is a mammoth accomplishment to complete, even more so when you are trying to do so as fast as possible. What Tara Dower did earlier this year will go down as one of the greatest endurance accomplishments ever. To push your body like that day-over-day for 17-plus hours is hard to comprehend. She redefined what we thought the limits of human endurance were, and solidified herself in Appalachian Trail history.

If you’re interested in reading more about the details of what setting a FKT on the Appalachian Trail entails, I would recommend Scott Jurek’s book, “North.” It gives a detailed recounting of his journey, and the grueling schedule that is required to chase an insanely fast time on one of the most difficult trails in the world. Many have attempted this FKT, and many will attempt it in the coming years. I hope this article has been insightful in giving some interesting numbers behind the Appalachian Trail FKT history and what was required to set the current benchmark.

Call for comments

  • What is your experience with running/hiking on the Appalachian Trail?
  • What else is important to consider when comparing FKT attempts?
  • Which numbers surprised you the most?
Tara Dower - Appalachian Trail FKT - finish

Tara Dower, after setting an overall supported fastest known time on the Appalachian Trail. Photo: Pete Schreiner/@schreinertrailphotography



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