“The risk for the two of them is about the same for demonstrating some degree of cognitive decline over the next four to five years,” said Joel Kramer, the director of the neuropsychology program at the UCSF Memory and Aging Center.
If Trump is elected this fall and serves a full term, he would eventually become the oldest U.S. president in history, eclipsing Biden.
Trump celebrated in the evening by speaking at an event hosted by the Trump fan group “Club 47 USA” in West Palm Beach, Fla. While the crowd sang “Happy Birthday” as he came onstage, the former president mentioned his birthday only briefly.
“This is the biggest birthday party I’ve ever had, by far,” Trump said.
Trump delivered a speech that hit on his usual themes, including disparaging undocumented immigrants and attacking Biden.
Both Trump and Biden have released statements from their medical teams indicating that they are fit for office. While actuarial tables indicate that Biden and Trump are far more likely than not to live through a second term — and some experts caution their verbal gaffes should not be seen as proof of cognitive decline — voters have still expressed skepticism about their fitness for the job.
A Marquette Law School poll in May asked registered voters how well the phrase “too old to be president” describes Biden and Trump. Seventy-nine percent said it described Biden very or somewhat well, while 54 percent said it described Trump very or somewhat well.
A Pew Research Center survey from April found that 62 percent of voters said they were not confident in Biden’s mental fitness, and 65 percent said they were not confident in his physical fitness. Trump drew more positive ratings but still faced doubts: 48 percent said they were not confident in his mental fitness, and 39 percent said the same of his physical fitness.
Fewer than half of Biden’s supporters said they were extremely or very confident that he had the mental and physical fitness for the job, while the majority of Trump supporters said they were extremely or very confident Trump had the mental and physical fitness for the job, the poll shows.
While Biden, who has a stutter he has spoken openly about, has come under scrutiny for verbal fumbles — such as referring to the late French president François Mitterrand instead of current French President Emmanuel Macron, and misstating that Egyptian President Abdel Fatah El-Sisi was the president of Mexico — Trump has also stumbled over his words. He mixed up Nikki Haley and Nancy Pelosi during an event this year, and he has a long history of making false comments and going on meandering rants, including a recent one at his Las Vegas rally about shark attacks.
Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt pointed to Trump’s “frequent hostile media interviews” and “hours-long speeches,” at times without a teleprompter, as evidence that he is “sharp as a tack” and “ready to lead our country back to greatness.”
When it comes to Biden and Trump, Republicans have argued that Trump’s combative persona helps explain the disparity in the way many Americans think about age. Longtime Republican strategist Scott Reed argued that Trump’s aggressive strategy of finding ways to regularly fire up his base “overshadows any age talk.”
Trump has repeatedly mocked Biden at his rallies, imitating him as being lost onstage. Yet he and some of his allies have also sought to walk a fine line, suggesting that age itself is not the issue.
In a recent Truth Social post, Trump posted a video declaring: “Joe Biden is not too old to be president, I know a lot of people that are older than him and they’re at the top of their game. It’s not even close. But he is too incompetent and he is too corrupt. He is the worst president in the history of our country. Thank you.”
Biden and his allies have repeatedly defended his fitness for office. Biden has addressed questions about his age by arguing that he brings wisdom and experience. He has also attempted to bring in humor. “I know I may not look like it, but I’ve been around a while,” Biden said at his State of the Union address. “And when you get to my age, certain things become clearer than ever before.”
“Strategically the Republicans have made a mistake, because the bar is so low that the president’s easily going to clear it,” said Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.), a Biden ally. “Trump has an aesthetic of vitality that he’s cultivated his whole life, he benefits from that image on that issue. But I believe that when he is put side by side in a debate, and it’s not just about the projection of an image, but it’s people evaluating how he’s answering questions … that will be to the president’s advantage.”
Trump has released limited medical information. In November, he released a letter from Bruce Aronwald, a doctor of osteopathy, that declared his “overall health is excellent” and “his cognitive exams were exceptional.” He has repeatedly boasted about passing the Montreal Cognitive Assessment test, used to detect dementia or cognitive decline. (The creator of the test has said it has never included the specific combination of animals described by Trump in any versions.)
“All presidents should have aptitude tests, IQ tests or cognitive tests,” Trump said, before referring to Rep. Ronny Jackson (R-Tex.), his former White House physician and a staunch ally. “Dr. Ronny Jackson gave me one. … Did I ace it? I aced it. He said I aced it.”
Trump’s father, Fred Trump, lived until the age of 93. In his later years, he had dementia, an experience Donald Trump has publicly spoken about.
Several members of Congress spoke at the event, including Rep. Byron Donalds (R-Fla.) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), both of whom are potential vice-presidential candidates. The Palm Beach County Convention Center featured screens that said “Happy Birthday Donald J. Trump Born in the USA on Flag Day.”
Attendees wore party hats and American flag-themed clothing. Items for sale included shirts that said “I’m voting for the felon.”
Trump has a history of high-profile birthday celebrations. Trump’s 50th birthday party in 1996, according to the New York Times, included a surprise appearance from Tony Bennett, as well as “blown up black-and-white photographs of Mr. Trump as a child (with his confirmation class, on a tricycle, in the tub),” a “Marla mermaid ice sculpture” (a reference to his then-wife), and 600 gold balloons.
Scott Clement and Joel Achenbach contributed to this report.
