In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: London WWT event lost, UCI proposes “new” safety rules, UAE fires a shot across the bow, Demi Vollering as Caitlin Clark, Saudi PIF invests everywhere except cycling and lay-offs at GCN.
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- WWT Loses Key Event In London
- “New” Safety Rules Proposed by UCI
- UAE Fires a Shot Across the Bow
- Is Demi Vollering Cycling’s Caitlin Clark?
- Relentless Saudi Investment in Sports … Except Cycling
- Another Round of Cutbacks in the Cycling Media
No more RideLondon
The UCI announced its revised calendar for the 2025 Women’s WorldTour, and the RideLondon Classique was an unfortunate casualty of the date re-shuffling. While the RideLondon event — cycling routes ridden by up to 50,000 enthusiasts centered in the London area — will still take place on May 25, 2025, the women’s WWT weekend slot was awarded to the women’s Tour of Burgos in Spain. Due to long-term scheduling commitments for the RideLondon organizers, an alternative date for its Classique race was not feasible. According to a press release by RideLondon officials, the date change was communicated to them in late March saying that they’d have to move the race forward by a week, despite being earlier told there’d be no calendar changes until 2026. The race was considered to be a legacy of the 2012 Olympic games road course, and it had gained a reputation as one tailored for the sport’s best sprinters. Yet, even with this strong history and reputation, the premium being placed on race dates prior to the summer’s longer multi-day stage races was probably a factor in supplanting London’s spot in May. Another was the shift of the Vuelta a Espana Femenina by a week into May, which caused a ripple effect that effectively elevated the Burgos race at London’s expense. If there is an upside to the whole affair, it is that London’s loss shows just how competitive the market is becoming for WWT race event licenses – a factor which the sport must capitalize on with more aggressive broadcast coverage strategies.
More safety with yellow cards?
The UCI made other news last week by announcing “new” safety protocols for road races, including consequences for behavioral and rules infractions. Among the new enhanced protocols are a yellow card system with a cumulative infraction tracking system that scales the punishment to the number of cards issued to a rider, moto driver, or team official. There is also more discretion with the “three kilometer” rule (expanding it to five kilometers); this reduces the impacts of so-called technical finishing routes in stage races, so as not increase the time a rider might lose in a crash. Finally, the use of earpieces is being reevaluated with regards to rapid, often haphazard movement of riders throughout the peloton when strategy and sprint train organization is communicated en masse within the teams. An upside of all of this is that apparently the output from SafeR— the safety organization jointly administered by the teams, riders, organizers, and the UCI — is being put into practice (despite SafeR losing its CEO earlier this year). Similarly, it’s encouraging to hear that technical factors in bike and helmet design are also being considered for risk reduction. However, we would argue that course design and monitoring will still play as big a role in improving safety as any “yellow card consequences.” And it’s also important to keep in mind that the cost and responsibility for organizers to appropriately guarantee on-road course integrity is a financial risk – one which could make or break event budgets.
UAE teammates Adam Yates and João Almeida dominant in the Tour de Suisse
With UAE teammates Adam Yates and João Almeida finishing a dominant first and second overall at the Tour de Suisse, there are early whispers of another possible podium sweep at the Tour de France. The two riders, who will slot into super-domestique roles for Tadej Pogačar, performed much better than the rest of the field, which was comprised of various other team leaders – including the defending champion, Lidl-Trek’s Mattias Skjelmose, who finished third over three minutes back. The only real intrigue during the final weekend was whether Almeida could make up his 31-second deficit to race leader Yates during the final time trial (despite producing a stage-winning effort, Almeida ended up finishing 22-seconds behind Yates). And notably, just 29-seconds behind Skjelmose, was 22-year-old American Matthew Riccitello, who finished fifth overall and almost certainly rode himself onto the Israel-Premier Tech’s Tour lineup – imperiling Chris Froome’s presence at the race for the second consecutive year. The strong performance from UAE raises the same “embarrassment of riches” questions that plagued Jumbo-Visma last year; which of UAE’s group of talented and on-form riders will sacrifice their personal ambitions for Pogačar’s Tour campaign? In any event, however, the team’s performance at Suisse is a strong shot across the bow to any other team and rider heading to the Tour with overall podium ambitions.
Which team will dominate the Tour de France?
UAE’s steamrolling at Suisse and potential Tour de France podium sweep may seem like an outlier, but stage racing dominance by a handful of teams is quickly becoming the norm. If we pull back and examine the current landscape, it is again obvious – as we have noted before – that we are living in an age of stage racing dominance by a small handful of teams and riders. For example, just three teams, Visma-LAB, UAE and Ineos – probably the teams with the three largest budgets – have won every one of the most recent editions of the “big seven” one-week races and three grand tours. Highlighting the significance of the situation is the fact that this is far from a single-season statistical blip; if we look back through the last 14 of the biggest one-week races and the last six Grand Tours, only two riders from outside of these teams – Remco Evenepoel and Skjelmose – have been able to rack up GC wins. This trend underlines the link between spending and stage racing success. Furthermore, it suggests that if young, talented riders want to win the sport’s biggest stage races, they need to decamp their current squads for one of these three mega teams. Assuming this lack of biodiversity in the stage racing ecosystem continues, it would support our recent calls and recommendations for some sort of spending cap and/or salary parity between WorldTour teams.
Saudi sports investments – But not cycling
A recent short segment in CNBC’s Last Call financial news program succinctly picked apart Saudi Arabia’s sports investment strategy (full segment here). The nation’s sovereign wealth fund (PIF) has seemingly narrowed its spending into two channels: (1) sports with dysfunctional business models that it can disrupt and rebuild, and (2) sports which it may not be able to outright purchase, but where it can license and host prominent events. Underscoring these points, the report highlights the announcement of a Saudi-funded boxing league — in which various fighters from a variety of different boxing promotions would be unified in a single structure. That boxing league mirrors other recent overtures in golf (the LIV Tour) and tennis – where an outdated sports structure may be rapidly upended with either direct investment, or confrontation and competition by a better funded rival. Similarly, when it could not directly own the sport, the Saudis have staged events like WWE shows, UFC tournaments, and Formula 1 races – all putting valuable eyes on the country’s general message.
More desert races or investment in foreign races?
It’s now been a few months since we’ve heard a whisper about the much-hyped rumor that pro cycling was on the verge of being “taken over” by the Saudi investment fund. Given PIF’s continuing and aggressive push into other sports, we have to wonder how accurate those rumors were, and if they were accurate, what exactly went wrong? Pro cycling has both a generally outdated economic model and a race licensing model that could readily be upended by a well-funded party from outside the sport’s traditional circles. In other words, cycling is ripe for an outside party to step in and disrupt/modernize the sport. So, the questions are: was it the inability of any party — no matter how well-funded — to pry ASO and the Tour de France out of the Amaury family’s hands? Was it the inability of the teams to get on the same page and present as a unified entity? Perhaps the same individuals who leaked news about the purported One Cycling deal will one day leak the facts about what actually happened? Until then, it will be interesting to watch how the Saudis continue to reshape the global sporting landscape, despite the continued accusations of sportswashing.
Women’s racing has come a long way
Women’s sports have leapt from strength to strength, with the narrative of Caitlin Clark’s entrance into the WNBA becoming a case study on “how to build” a sport’s enterprise. In the short time since she was drafted into the league, ticket prices, viewership, and even inter-team competitiveness have experienced boosts. Games in which Clark plays have seen ticket prices increase and sell out, and stronger live viewership numbers. The narrative has been compelling as well, with veteran stars playing a more physical game on Clark and fouling her hard as if to remind her of her rookie status – not dissimilar to the battles Michael Jordan fought early in his NBA career. That emerging storyline of a rookie upstart fighting her way upwards and earning the right to become the face of the new WNBA will likely define the 2024 season, and could potentially elevate the popularity, economics, cross-marketing capabilities, and cultural trajectory of the game well into the future.
Demi Vollering is the rider to watch in almost every race she enters
Like Clark, Demi Vollering’s skill, fitness, and race acumen makes her the rider to watch in almost every race she enters – either fighting for a win or playing the foil to set up a strong teammate to do the same. In the women’s Tour de Suisse, she again proved to be the sport’s strongest climber, with two resounding mountaintop victories in the four-stage event. On stage 1, she played a tactically strong set of teammate cards to wear down the top contenders and then break free to establish a GC lead, while on stage 2, she tactically measured her own efforts to conserve strength in the first half of the mountain TT and then dug deep to absolutely blitz the final ascent. Gaia Realini and Elisa Longo Borghini (Lidl-Trek) performed strongly to keep within striking distance, but Kim Cadzow (EF) emerged as a rider to watch, just a few seconds off the podium after a strong TT showing. And in today’s stage, Canyon-SRAM rode a near-perfect race to isolate Vollering and put Neve Bradbury into 2nd place on GC after her stage win. Again, we lament the lack of focus on and distribution of broadcast availability for such an exciting race, but we hope that sponsors are keeping their eye on the bigger picture of the sport and the potential for a powerhouse like Vollering to change the fortunes of our sport. We need live women’s cycling coverage, and we need it to be globally available.
More live women’s racing on TV
It was announced this week that a majority interest in Play Sports Network, and its subsidiary Global Cycling Network (GCN), was sold by Warner Bros. Discovery back to its original founder, Simon Wear. The business had reportedly been on the block for months and has suffered through poor financial performance over the past few years. It is not clear yet what this will imply in terms of the original GCN+ streaming platform, although it appears the brand will continue its YouTube and social media operations. Several editorial content positions will be immediately discontinued, with some of the staff already announcing their departure on X. Meanwhile, WBD, which retained a minority stake in the venture, said that the company “maintains its focus on world-class live cycling coverage through Eurosport on linear television and its streaming services Max and Discovery+, offering the widest range of men’s and women’s races anywhere, including more than 1,000 cycling broadcasts per year.” At a time when the viewing audiences and media attention in other sports seems to be booming, it is very unfortunate that the cycling media continues to suffer from widespread shrinkage and cutbacks.
All change at GCN…again
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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