NBA mock draft 2024: These March Madness prospects can rise up boards in NCAA tournament

There’s no greater platform for a college basketball player to start building their reputation and their bank account than March Madness. With the 2024 men’s NCAA tournament now here, another field of players gets the opportunity to put themselves on the radar for future professional opportunities. Certain players have more at stake than others when it comes to the 2024 NBA Draft.

There are numerous examples of players parlaying a tremendous March Madness performance into a stark rise up the draft board. A few examples that immediately come to mind: DeAndre Hunter rising to the No. 4 pick in 2019 after Virginia’s national championship, Davion Mitchell becoming the No. 9 pick in 2021 after Baylor’s title run, and Jordan Hawkins moving into the lottery after UConn won it all last year. It’s bound to happen again.

Read our list of the 50 best players in the men’s NCAA tournament this year for more March Madness coverage.

SB Nation has been covering the 2024 NBA Draft class since the day after the 2023 draft. You can find scouting reports on every projected first round pick in our January mock. With the NCAA tournament here, this mock will be used to look at the players with the most at stake in March. Here’s how we think the 2024 NBA Draft will play out right now, with more analysis after the table.

Here are the players with the most to gain in March Madness.

Rob Dillingham, G, Kentucky

Freshman guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard might come off the bench for John Calipari’s Kentucky Wildcats, but no set of teammates has a greater chance to capture the hearts and minds of both basketball fans and NBA evaluators during March Madness.

Dillingham and Sheppard have been intertwined all year, up to and including their draft stock. When I took a poll earlier this month asking which player is a better NBA prospect, the voting results were nearly identical. Since then, Sheppard had a truly mesmerizing performance against No. 2 seed Tennessee, and seems to have moved in front. Some outlets even have Sheppard going No. 1 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft at this point.

Sheppard’s NBA stock seems more stable entering the tournament. Dillingham conversely feels primed to make or break his case as a potential top-five draft pick during this tournament run based on how he plays and how far Kentucky advances.

At this best, Dillingham is an impossibly slippery lead guard who can effortlessly create advantages out of thin air for himself and his teammates. With a deadly pull-up jumper and deep range, defenses can’t slack off him even for a second. Crowd Dillingham at the point of attack and he’ll blow by you, using a tight handle and elite quickness to get wherever he wants. Dillingham doesn’t just hunt his own shot: he’s a tremendous playmaker who throws easy lob passes to the rim and has no problem whipping passes to the corners. He’s also an effective off-ball player who knows how to relocate for threes with his knockdown spot-up shooting ability. Coming to Kentucky from Overtime Elite, there was a sense that Dillingham was going to be an undersized shot chucker going into the season, but he’s consistently proven himself to be a high-feel player who makes the right decisions to impact winning with Kentucky.

There are still some questions about his NBA translation. Dillingham has a very thin frame at 6’2, 176 pounds. He can get completely wiped out defensively by a good screen, and even when he’s in position, most players can overpower him on their way to the basket. He also has a tendency to pick up bad fouls. Dillingham does have quick hands to poke the ball away from opposing guards, but he’s going to be an eyesore defensively to start his NBA career. Offensively, Dillingham tends to live off a tough shot diet. He’s only an average finisher at the rim due to his lack of strength and length. His on-ball/off-ball shooting combination is tremendous, but he’s so small that teams will have to be careful about who they’re pairing him with in the backcourt.

Dillingham’s all offense/not much defense style is emblematic of Kentucky as a team. The Wildcats enter the tournament No. 5 in offensive efficiency and No. 105 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. Ideally, a team would insulate Dillingham defensively with long, rangey forwards and a true rim protector. This year’s Kentucky team has none of that. I picked Kentucky to the national title game as a No. 3 seed, but there’s no doubt they’re also type of team that could use in the first weekend if they can’t get any stops.

Dillingham is must-see TV every time he checks in for Calipari. I believe in his offensive skill, which is why I have him as a top-3 pick, but the only way he’s going that high is if he really crushes it in March Madness.

Stephon Castle, G, UConn

Castle’s momentum as both an NBA prospect and college player was slowed almost immediately after a knee injury kept him out of UConn’s lineup for nearly a month at the start of the season. The freshman guard returned to the court at the start of Dec., but needed a few more weeks to look like himself. He slowly rounded into form during conference season, and now could emerge as a critical piece for the No. 1 overall seed entering the tournament.

Castle checks a lot of boxes the NBA is looking for in a complementary player. Listed at 6’6, 215 pounds, Castle is a menace defensively who is quick enough to keep his chest in front of speedy guards, and strong enough to handle bigger wings. He can rip the ball away from opponents with hard digs into the paint, or end possessions with a defensive rebound. He’s a freight train in transition when turning defense into offense.

Castle has more of a ‘connector’ skill set offensively than the typical archetype of point guards and shooting guards. He’s at his best when he gets downhill to attack the basket, often finishing through contact or getting to the foul line. He’s capable of scoring off tough pivots and fadeaways when he generates a deep paint touch, almost like a less refined version of Jalen Brunson or Jimmy Butler. He’s probably not a primary ball handler, but he looks capable running pick-and-roll in a pinch when he’s not making passes around the perimeter.

There’s one big hole in Castle’s skill set, and that’s his jump shot. He enters the tournament 16-for-57 from deep, which translates to 28.1 percent. He has a tendency to turn down open looks, and just doesn’t seem all that confident in his three-point stroke off the catch. He is a solid 75.6 percent free throw shooter, though, which is a nice indicator for his future shooting development. In addition to a wonky jumper, Castle can also be slow at times making decisions with the ball. He very much plays at his own speed, which often works to his advantage when he can bully weaker defenders in the paint, but it will occasionally stall out the Huskies’ offense.

UConn feels like the best team in college basketball entering March Madness. Castle won’t have to carry the offense with Tristen Newton and Cam Spencer next to him, and he knows he has Donovan Clingan behind him to clean up messes at the rim defensively. Castle is a high-floor player for his motor and connective passing, but he also represents the top-end of UConn’s ceiling when he gets cooking at a scorer. If he gets hot as a three-point shooter during this tournament run, it feels like he can rise significantly on draft boards.

Dalton Knecht, F, Tennessee

Knecht enters the NCAA tournament as the feel good story of the college basketball season. After two years of JUCO ball followed by two years at Northern Colorado, he transferred to Tennessee and exploded into the most dangerous scorer in the country. The 6’6 wing dropped 30 point games at will in the SEC showing off deep shooting range, the willingness to attack the rim, and an undeniable confidence that he belonged among the best players in the country. We ranked Knecht as the No. 2 overall player in March Madness only behind Zach Edey. The final chapter of his inspiring college career will be written in this tournament, as he sets his eyes on taking Tennessee to its Final Four ever while solidifying his status as a lottery pick.

Knecht seems to have an easy role in the league as an off-ball scorer and volume three-point shooter. He’s been 40 percent on a high volume of attempts from behind the three-point line all season, and he’s consistently shown in ability to put the ball on the floor when he needs to attack a close out. It’s easy to envision him playing off NBA stars in a similar role to Grayson Allen in Phoenix or Tim Hardaway Jr. in Dallas.

The question is what else Knecht brings to the table other than buckets. He’s likely to be a major defensive liability early in his career. He often looks lost navigating screens and can get overpowered on drives to the rim. He feels like the type of player who will wear a target on his chest defensively until he shows he can compete. He’s going to have to be a really really good supplemental scorer to overcome it if his defense doesn’t improve.

Knecht is also 23 years old, making him by far the oldest projected first round pick in this draft. Regardless of how you view his NBA translation, there’s no doubt he’s the type of player built to become a March Madness icon. With a starring run through the bracket, his strengths will appear a lot more desirable, and his weaknesses will feel easier to overlook in a weak draft class. Vols head coach Rick Barnes hasn’t made the Final Four since he coached T.J. Ford at Texas. If he can’t do it with Knecht, it feels like it’s never going to happen for him again.

Other prospects to watch in March

• Ja’Kobe Walter, G, Baylor: Off-ball wing who can shoot threes with volume (34.5 percent from three on 197 attempts) and should have the skill set to defend bigger guards and smaller wings at the other end. He’ll get hit with the 3-and-D label because he doesn’t create much with the ball in his hands, but his ability to hit tough pull-ups in the halfcourt is more impressive than most players in that mold. While some have questioned the viability of his deep shot as his percentage waned throughout the year, I’m a bit more skeptical of his defense. Let’s see if he can lock down in this tournament.
• Jared McCain, G, Duke: A smaller guard ideally suited as a secondary handler, McCain has a lethal jump shot with deep range. He’s in a similar mold to Sheppard offensively, but he’s going to have to be a +40 percent three-point shooter on high volume because he has even more defensive question marks than the Kentucky standout.
• Yves Missi, C, Baylor: Baylor’s freshman center is a huge human at 6’11 with a 7’6 wingspan and a strong frame. His quick off the ground for someone his, which he uses mostly to attack the offensive glass and hammer home lobs. Don’t pigeonhole Missi into strictly a run-and-jump big man, though: his handling flashes hint at some long-term upside that makes him even more intriguing.
• Zach Edey, C, Purdue: I’ve finally talked myself into Edey having a place in the NBA during his senior year. His dominance as captured by the impact metrics is simply too significant to ignore to a weaker class, and his outlier size (7’4, 300 pounds) could cause real problems against NBA bench units in a smaller role. It feels weird to say for a player poised to become the first back-to-back national player of the year since Ralph Sampson more than 40 years ago, but Edey almost feels underrated, probably because opposing fans are still laughing at Purdue losing to a No. 16 seed last year. In reality, Edey is a generational college basketball player and still has plenty to offer teams at the next level. A long tournament run for the Boilermakers wouldn’t just alleviate the pain of last season, but also give all of America a chance to realize how good Edey really is.