In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Pog dominates, but Girmay is cycling’s new star, was the finishing stage a harbinger of the future? Kudos in the cycling media, a detailed new industry report, Lappartient wades into doping…
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- Pogačar Dominates, But A New Star Emerges in Biniam Girmay
- Was The Tour’s Finishing Stage a Harbinger for the Future?
- Kudos to the Cycling Media
- A Detailed Market Report on the Bicycle Industry
- Lappartient Wades into Doping Questions
Pogačar dominated the 2024 Tour de France
The 2024 Tour de France wrapped up over the weekend with a visually stunning but unorthodox final time trial in Nice, in lieu of the traditional sprint stage in Paris. Unsurprisingly, the stage podium on the mountainous time trial between Monaco and Nice mirrored the overall podium of Tadej Pogačar in first, Jonas Vingegaard in second, and Remco Evenepoel in third. While no one was surprised to see Pogačar seal his third overall Tour title, the sheer dominance in which he did it – winning the final three stages, and a total tally of six stage wins, becoming only second rider ever, along with Gino Bartali, to win five mountain stages in a single Tour – was stunning and impressive to watch. Pogačar effortlessly became just the 8th rider of all-time to complete the Giro/Tour double, and – after the dust settled – accomplished this after winning a Monument and six stages at the Giro as well. As if that wasn’t enough, he immediately indicated that he was hungry for more – hinting that he wanted to add a World Championship to his 2024 tally as well. The good news for cycling fans is that even with Pogačar accomplishing superhuman feats, his future Tour dominance is by no means assured. Jonas Vingegaard – despite suffering through a nightmare spring that completely disrupted his pre-Tour training – also broke a number of climbing records and showed very strong form, despite finishing second. Assuming he can have a clean run at the Tour in 2025, cycling could be in for a truly great battle between two historically dominant stage racers.
Biniam Girmay – The new hero on the block
While Pogačar dominated the overall race, Eritrea’s Biniam Girmay commanded the most attention from fans by winning three sprint stages and the Green Jersey – becoming the first Black African to win a classification jersey at the Tour. Watching him race, it feels as though the entire continent of Africa is watching and rooting for him. It remains to be seen to what extent Girmay’s exploits will diversify the talent base in pro cycling, but it is clear that he has already brought in a fresh set of passionate fans – and surely someday there will be a new generation of African cyclists racing in Europe who were first inspired after watching him win in 2024. Girmay’s breakout performance and easy-going personality is a recipe for stardom and given that he has turned down bigger offers to stick with Intermarché-Wanty – which has one of the smallest budgets in the WorldTour – Girmay seems to have a very well supported team environment. His future seems bright.
Mark Cavendish took his 35th Tour stage victory
Another fan favorite, Mark Cavendish, celebrated on Sunday after ending his final Tour de France and finally reaching his record-setting 35th career Tour stage win. Cavendish has managed to successfully negotiate a long career in the sport, evolving from a brash and often impudent young star to a widely respected and beloved elder statesman. Many pundits immediately suggested that this was one more sports record that would never be broken. However, while Cavendish’s feat is extraordinary – especially considering his age, 39, and given how he appeared to be on his way out of the sport as long as five years ago – Pogačar’s stage winning rate, which has netted him a total of 17 Tour stage wins after just five Tour starts, suggests that he could be on pace to break Cavendish’s record by the conclusion of the 2030 Tour de France (when he will be just 32-years-old).
The Tour finish in Nice – New finishing stage hosts in the future?
Outside of the superhuman performances by several riders, the Tour’s final weekend was historic due to its unusual location, finishing outside of Paris for the first time since 1975. The event was forced to forego its traditional and spectacular finish location on the Champs d’Elysee, due to the city’s preparation for the upcoming Olympic games. This raises the question whether this could become more common in the future – considering that ASO likely received a significant fee from Nice to host the final three stages. The route in and round the city and the confined setting of the finish line allowed the organizer to set up grandstands and fence off the nearby area, allowing it to sell high-priced VIP tickets. The highly photogenic route along the French Riviera coast and the fact that Nice has a small enough footprint that the event dominated the weekend – as opposed to the huge metroplex setting of Paris – suggests that ASO might potentially open bids for new finishing stage hosts in the future.
Tough climbs around Nice – Stage 20 Col de Braus
One overlooked by-product of moving the final stage to Nice – which is pinned between the Mediterranean Sea and the Alps – is that it created a very challenging third week. Combined with the rapid pace which characterized nearly every stage, the last week had the vast majority of the peloton on its knees – clearly missing the traditional final flat stage. This exhaustion was evidenced by the fact that the post-second rest day breakaways consisted of mostly the same rotating cast of riders. During supposed sprint stages, riders simply refused to get into TV-time breakaways, allowing the peloton to roll along at a glacial pace and effectively create additional rest days. (We will have more analysis of this trend next week.)
In the most detailed market and investment analysis that we’ve seen on the bike industry in many years, the investment banking firm Houlihan Lokey predicts that – despite the whiplash of the last few years – the industry is primed for a period of consolidation and improving margins. A new cycle of mergers and acquisitions will lead to opportunities for investors. The study suggests that inventory levels will balance out and the mass discounts of the last few years will come to an end. This, in combination with greater “near-shoring” in the supply chain to minimize risk, will allow industry margins to gradually recover and improve. Perhaps most interestingly, the report suggests that the overall industry is poised to grow at about 8% per year, mostly driven by greater e-bike sales; this recovery will be characterized by growth in value rather than volume, with total units sold “expected to remain flat in both Europe and North America.” The size of the combined European and North American market is estimated at approximately $35 billion by 2028, and will be bolstered by various government initiatives to promote bicycle transportation.
Afghan women who fled Taliban to make history at Cycling World Championships
We have occasionally been critical of the sometimes sensational tendencies and herd mentality of the cycling media, but we should also give credit where credit is due. Almost three years ago, during the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. military troops from Afghanistan, the UCI – working with various NGO and government groups and President Fazli Ahmad Fazli of the Afghan Cycling Federation – was able to evacuate some 160 people from the country (including cyclists, human rights activists, journalists and artists) out of the country. The humanitarian efforts received wide praise at the time. A few months later however, Fazli began to be accused of favoritism toward his own family, abuse and even death threats against some of these evacuees. The (now-inactive) CyclingTips website conducted an in-depth investigation and wrote a story about the allegations. However, the story was not well-received by the UCI – which was still basking in the limelight of its humanitarian rescue effort, going so far as to give Fazli various tributes and awards.
UCI President David Lappartient on the attack
Apparently unwilling to countenance any challenge its credibility, UCI President Lappartient stooped to personally attacking the individual CyclingTips writer, Iain Treloar – saying “he is someone you can’t trust … I think he wakes up in the morning trying to destroy (the UCI)” … adding that “this guy is sitting in Australia sipping a beer,” and later even denying him press permits to attend the Tour de France. But now, as reported by the Escape Collective, where Treloar currently works, after a two-year investigation, the UCI has essentially reversed its position, implicitly accepted the earlier accusations, suspended Fazli and banned him from all cycling-related activities. This is a perfect and successful example of the critical watchdog role of the “fourth estate” – to monitor and provide information about the activities of powerful and often unaccountable governance bodies and provide a voice for those who are mistreated. We hope that the UCI acknowledges its considerable missteps in this case and issues an apology.
Are the riders doping?
The question – “are the riders doping?” – is oft-repeated during and after the Tour, especially as average race speeds continue to creep upwards and mythical climbing records are repeatedly shattered. Yet it is rare that the UCI President directly weighs in on the matter while the race is in progress. David Lappartient noted this in a wide-ranging interview prior to the final weekend, stating, “it’s rather good that everyone is asking the question,” which ‒ in the context of revelations that teams are reportedly using a controversial carbon monoxide inhalation technique, continued use of ketone products, possible use of weight-reducing drugs and rumored widespread use of opioid painkillers ‒ did little to settle critics’ nerves. While Lappartient highlighted UCI initiatives and investment in anti-doping, critics ‒ led as usual by former Festina trainer Antoine Vayer ‒ have also been highlighting the unlikely physiological parameters needed to achieve the kind of results we’ve seen lately. We have noted in the past that cycling has done more than most sports to prioritize anti-doping, but given the current turmoil rippling throughout the entire anti-doping system (e.g., the Chinese swimming scandal and Kenyan athletics crisis) is the UCI focused on the right problems at this critical juncture? For example, significant investment in intelligence-gathering and athlete tracking in Kenyan athletics resulted in dozens of suspensions, including some of the world’s best distance runners. Similar intelligence may have helped the UCI regarding the prolonged Miguel Angel Lopez case, but given that the blueprint for doping in modern elite sport is well-established, and corresponding testing strategies historically underperform, one wonders if the UCI could contribute meaningful investment to help strengthen the system.
The prolonged Miguel Angel Lopez case could have been different
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Like PEZ? Why not subscribe to our weekly newsletter to receive updates and reminders on what’s cool in road cycling?
