In this week’s AIRmail newsletter, The Outer Line takes an in-depth look at: Race tactics still alive and well, is Tadej Pogačar really that unbeatable? Joe Martin race postponed, Trek right-sizing, what’s next for Sports Illustrated? Another view on Patrick Lefevere.
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
Key Takeaways:
- Reports on the Death of Race Tactics “Greatly Over-Exaggerated”
- Is Pogačar Really That Unbeatable?
- Joe Martin Stage Race “Postponed”
- Trek’s “Right-Sizing”
- SI’s Long and Winding Road
- Wielerflits Provides Another Perspective on Patrick Lefevere
Lidl-Trek used their race tactics to beat Van der Poel in Gent-Wevelgem
For a second straight weekend, the cycling world was reminded that recent reports of the death of racing tactics have been greatly exaggerated. Lidl-Trek executed a textbook tactical race to upset Sunday’s Gent-Wevelgem heavy pre-race favorite Mathieu van der Poel, perfectly leveraging their numerical superiority, delivering Mads Pedersen to a key victory, as momentum builds toward next weekend’s Tour of Flanders. Though Van der Poel stormed clear for a brute force solo win on Friday at E3, it was aided by the fact that the sport’s top one-day rider, Tadej Pogačar, wasn’t present, and because the only other rider capable of physically matching him, Wout van Aert, suffered a crash at a key point of the race. It remains to be seen if the shrewd utilization of tactics will carry over to this coming Sunday’s Tour of Flanders. Flanders’ difficult course has frequently seen the race’s strongest competitor ride clear – this has happened in 50% of the last ten editions. The chances of this happening this year are perhaps higher than normal, due to the absence of last year’s solo winner Pogačar.
Pogačar’s tactics in Catalunya was attack till you are on your own
If tactics were the theme of the weekend in Flanders, it was the opposite down in Spain, with Tadej Pogačar sledgehammering his way to what appeared like an effortless overall win at Volta Catalunya, and winning four stages in the process. Pogačar’s three-plus minute margin of victory over second-place finisher Mikel Landa was very impressive and led to a cascade of think-pieces suggesting that the very presence of Pogačar means all other riders are racing for second, and how it is making the sport less entertaining. While it could appear that way at this specific point in time, we would also point out that this isn’t quite accurate: Pogačar failed to win his last monument (Milano-Sanremo) as well as the last two Tours de France. More importantly, while Pogačar is obviously in very good form at the moment, the real issue may not be that he is so much better than everyone else, but that the sport’s top riders so rarely race against one another (as opposed to the dominant Formula 1 drivers cited in the above articles). For example, Pogačar’s stomping of the competition at Catalunya may have looked jarring at first glance, but upon closer inspection it was somewhat predictable, given that virtually none of other GC contenders in the race have ever beaten Pogačar in any type of stage. For example, since Pogačar turned pro in 2019, the three riders who finished behind him in the GC at Catalunya, Mikel Landa, Egan Bernal, and Aleksandr Vlasov, have beaten him a grand total of one time in the GC at any stage race – Vlasov at the 2019 Tour of Slovenia, one of Pogačar’s first-ever professional races. In short, Pogačar is currently riding clear of solid fields to win, but he simply has not yet been racing against riders who have the ability to seriously challenge him.
A close finish in the women’s Gent-Wevelgem
The women’s edition of Gent-Wevelgem was a gem for race enthusiasts and provided an epic battleground for the WWT contenders. The Kemmelberg proved to be indecisive for a winning breakaway by SD Worx-Protime’s Lotte Kopecky on two ascents, but the subsequently reduced and regrouped peloton led to exciting attacks and counter moves from Movistar and FDJ through Ieper/Ypres and into the finishing straightaway. Kopecky provided a textbook leadout for teammate Lorena Wiebes, who just pipped a fast-charging Trofeo Alfredo Binda winner Elisa Balsamo (Lidl-Trek) on the line. Leading into the Tour of Flanders on March 31st, the two strongest WWT teams are indeed Lidl-Trek and SDWorx-Protime as expected, but as evidenced by the strength and size of the G-W group sprint – and willingness of other teams to attack at every opportunity – the upcoming Ronde could be the race to watch.
No Joe Martin Stage Race this year
In yet another sign of the unfortunate downturn in the U.S. road racing calendar, the venerable Joe Martin Stage Race in Fayetteville (Arkansas) was “postponed” until 2025. According to news outlets and the race organizers, rising production costs outpaced sponsorship funding and made the 2024 edition an untenable goal. Instead, the race will redouble efforts to find increased sponsorship sources and commitments for future years. The race has been a mainstay of the U.S. scene for decades, with nine editions on the UCI calendar. Amazingly, the 2023 event had its largest professional field ever, as well as its largest women’s field. An immediate impact to the U.S. scene is the loss of one the calendar’s most important developmental program testing grounds, particularly for women’s racing. Furthermore, the postponement confirms that – much like recently canceled races on the European calendar – costs and resource availability to secure roadways and meet minimum road racing safety standards are becoming a universal concern. We hope that All Pro Sports is able to meet its new sponsorship targets to bring the stage race back in 2025, but the cautionary examples of the Tour of California – which sought a similar hiatus for similar reasons after its 2019 edition – and more recent Colorado Classic shows that it may be a tough road ahead.
Sports Illustrated magazine will continue for at least ten years
There was news last week that the venerable Sports Illustrated magazine will now continue to be published for at least a ten-year period. In a complicated arrangement, the Authentic Brands Group, which actually owns the intellectual property rights to SI, will license the publishing rights to sports publishing group Minute Media. Minute’s holdings include The Player’s Tribune and Fansided, which generate about $400 million in annual revenue. The company said it would continue to produce a print edition – at a time when almost all printed sports magazines have migrated to digital. As part of the deal, Authentic Brands acquired an equity stake in Minute. For a more thorough analysis of exactly what is going on in this complicated arrangement – changing ownership, missed payments, large-scale lay-offs, changing publication and licensing rights, and the inevitable and shadowy billionaire involvement – check out this analysis of the saga from Front Office Sports.
The Frontrunner report on the impact of climate change on sports
An Australian athletes’ group called Frontrunners has just published an interesting report about the impact of climate change on sports – not the “vice versa” version which we have seen so much of recently. Following the terrible fires of 2019 and 2020, this group came together to evaluate the impact, and to “accelerate sports climate leadership” in the future. The group’s report finds that very few sporting organizations are yet focused on the impacts of climate change, and even fewer have any contingency plans. The report also underlines the legal liability to which sporting organizations could be exposing themselves – in the way of heat or cold-related illnesses or injuries to both athletes and fans. It also points to the risks that extreme flooding can cause for operators of sporting venues, and the potential longer-term impacts of sea level rise. Among the report’s preliminary recommendations were suggestions that sporting brands and events should consider environmental sustainability when putting on events or signing up sponsors.
FuboTV maintains a toe-hold
We’ve repeated this mantra many times over the years, but professional cycling needs to find a way to monetize its broadcast content through licensing and other media deals to become more profitable in the future. While that future is somewhat up in the air as major streaming service providers seek to merge their sports streaming platforms (and existing players like Flo Sports and FuboTV maintain a toe-hold in the space), much of the spring racing including men’s and women’s WorldTour events like Gent-Wevelgem, Volta Catalunya, and E3 have been shamelessly pirate-streamed for free on YouTube and other services. Some streams have Eurosport commentary, while others are the raw broadcast feeds without commentary. It can take up to two hours for a content license-holder to get a platform like YouTube to take down a pirate stream, which – if you do the math for tuning in to the last hour of racing – is a waste of time at worst, or a face-saving move to make sure the license holder’s free 7-minute post-race summary is seen at all later. We would suggest that the broadcast partner and streaming Cloud infrastructure provider teams do a better job securing the transmission, but similarly, analysis of the viewers of such pirated streams could be useful in measuring potential audience demographics to improve future marketing and subscription modeling. Quite literally, the economics of the sport depend on it.
Trek’s “right size”
Trek’s recent announcement that it would “right size” its business in light of operational challenges posed by the ongoing cycling economy downturn at first seemed aligned with business decisions that a privately held company might take when sales nosedive. However, industry analysts and shop owners are seeing signs that the historically insular brand – which rarely lets its sales numbers leak or addresses the brand’s health – is trimming the fat down to a core set of manufacturing, distribution, and operational capacities, stirring chatter of a potential sale or an attempt to take the company public. Similar moves were made by brands like Cannondale in prior acquisition activities, and the depth and breadth of Trek’s cost-cutting and brand realignment decisions seem just as substantial. The reported content of Trek’s internal memo provided hints about the brand’s growth during pandemic surge, but the 40% SKU reduction alone similarly hints to its post-pandemic rebound hangover – especially as it bought out many established local bike shop chain stores to bolster its dealer network. (And bear in mind that an overstretched store network was a major factor in the Performance Bike Shop bankruptcy just prior to the pandemic.) It may yet play out that Trek is navigating a rough patch with sensible cutbacks and market refocus. However, the similarities here to the typical M&A playbook seem too obvious to ignore, while going public might be the only way for the Burke family to retain majority ownership and raise the capital necessary to keep the stressed company afloat.
Lefevere’s punishment was not unanticipated
In last week’s AIR, we reflected on the consequences Patrick Lefevere is facing from the UCI Ethics Committee for his divisive comments on his own riders, as well as women involved in the sport. While the punishment was not unanticipated – and may have been overdue given the number of prior instances – Lefevere nevertheless holds an important place in the modern sport for his longevity, talent development, and competitiveness of his teams, despite having one of the sport’s smaller WT budgets. Our friends at Wielerflits provided an in-depth analysis of his contributions in contrast to his recent troubles and argue that his positive impacts and winning record in the sport outweigh his untimely words. Perhaps one of the most interesting takeaways from that analysis is Lefevere’s self-reflection on how he manages relationships with his riders: “it is not just about signing talents on time, but also about saying goodbye to them on time.” Whatever your opinion is of Patrick Lefevere, we invite you to see him through another critical lens (use of Google’s Translate web browser plug-in or similar feature recommended, if you don’t speak Dutch).
Lefevere holds an important place
# Catch up on pro cycling – and its context within the broader world of sports – with AIRmail … Analysis, Insight and Reflections from The Outer Line. You can subscribe to AIRmail here, and check out The Outer Line’s extensive library of articles on the governance and economics of cycling here. #
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