Rocket Mortgage Classic: betting odds, predictions, insight, more

After three straight weeks of non-stop action at the Memorial, the U.S. Open, and the Travelers Championship, the PGA Tour heads to the Midwest for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Rickie Fowler prevailed in a playoff over Adam Hadwin and Collin Morikawa a year ago, as all three players finished at 24-under-par at the end of the final round. Expect a birdie barrage again this year at Detroit Golf Club, a Donald Ross design that PGA Tour pros seem to attack year in and year out.

Since the tournament’s inception in 2019, the average winner has been 23.2 strokes under par, with only one player finishing higher than 20 under: Cameron Davis, who, in 2021, won in a playoff at 18 under.

Like TPC River Highlands in Connecticut, this golf course plays into ball-strikers’ hands. That said, unlike what we saw at the Travelers Championship, this course does not have many lateral hazards and penalty areas. Bombers can bomb and gouge it around the property without hesitation, using their length to set up better opportunities. That helps explain why Bryson DeChambeau, Tony Finau, and Davis have all won here.

But at the end of the day, this event will come down to putting. You need to putt well to post a low score, and whoever can consistently do that over four days will win in Detroit.

Photo by Brian Spurlock/Getty Images

Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds

Here are the current odds for players to win in Michigan this week, provided by DraftKings.

• Tom Kim +1200
• Cameron Young +1400
• Min Woo Lee +2000
• Akshay Bhatia +2000
• Will Zalatoris +3000
• Stephan Jaeger +3000
• Maverick McNealy +3000
• Keith Mitchell +3000
• Alex Noren +3000
• Taylor Pendrith +4000
• Robert MacIntyre +4000
• Davis Thompson +4000
• Aaron Rai +4000
• Rickie Fowler +4500
• Michael Thorbjornsen +4500
• Erik van Rooyen +4500
• Taylor Moore +5000
• Ryan Fox +5000
• Chris Kirk +5000
• Nicolai Højgaard +5000

Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images

Rocket Mortgage Classic Insight, Predictions

Tom Kim continues to shine

Fresh off a solid performance at the Travelers Championship, where he fell just short to World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler in a playoff, Tom Kim arrives in Michigan for his ninth straight start on the PGA Tour.

He also arrives as the favorite, an exciting development for the young man who recently turned 22. But he deserves to have odds this low at +1200 to win. This golf course is not long by tour standards, and Kim does not have the length many of his peers possess. Instead, he relies heavily on his short-to-mid irons, an attribute that was on full display in Connecticut. He ranked third in strokes gained on approach in Cromwell.

Of course, ball-striking is meaningless if you cannot convert those birdie opportunities. He will have to hole some putts to give himself a chance again, but Kim’s putter worked well for him last week, ranking 20th in strokes gained with the putter. Sure, he could have made a few more, but overall, his game is in solid form. He has not missed a cut since the Valero Texas Open and has two top-five finishes in the past month.

We like him to post his third top-five this week in Detroit at +320.

Cameron Young continues to rise from slump, and contend

Before Friday’s second round at the Travelers Championship, where he shot a 4-under 66, Cameron Young had 10 straight rounds in the 70s dating back to his missed cut at the RBC Canadian Open. Of those 10, Young posted only one score of even par or better, a second-round 72 at the Memorial.

But something clicked for him in Connecticut. After his Friday 66, Young fired a historic 59, vaulting himself into contention going into the final day. He then began Sunday’s round with four straight birdies, leading many to ask if he could shoot another sub-60 score on back-to-back days. Alas, that mantra was short-lived, as he wound up with another 66 on Sunday.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Still, Young recorded a tie for ninth, his best finish since the Masters.

Now, he heads to Michigan with some confidence, as he will compete in the Rocket Mortgage Classic for the first time since 2022, when he tied for second. He has the length to bomb it all over Detroit Golf Club, and we like his short-iron play and wedge game to show up again. Give us Young to finish in the top five at +360.

Young Gun Lurks

Michael Thorbjornsen got a taste of the big stage last week in New England in his professional debut. The former Stanford Cardinal, who earned his PGA Tour card via the PGA Tour University rankings, played well, all things considered. The Wellesley, Massachusetts native tied for 39th as he fired a 6-under 64 during round two and a 4-under 66 on day three to post a respectable finish.

But we like him to play even better this week. Thorbjornsen oozes confidence, much like Ludvig Åberg this time a year ago. If you recall, Åberg played alongside Ryder Cup captain Luke Donald at last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. The young Swede impressed the European captain, as Donald compared him to a young Rory McIlroy. Of course, only a few months later, Donald selected Åberg to join the team, a testament to his meteoric rise into the top 10 of the world.

Granted, this is not to say that Thorbjornsen will have a similar experience, but he does boast a ton of talent. He can hit the ball a mile and has a nifty short game. So we believe that he will post his first top-10 finish as a pro, doing so at a +500 price.

2024 Rocket Mortgage Classic Champion is…

In my U.S. Open Dark Horses piece, I selected Alex Noren as one of my picks. At the time, his game was trending in the right direction, fresh off a tie for 12th at the PGA Championship. He had missed the cut at the RBC Canadian Open, his first of the year, but rebounded with a tie for 22nd at the Memorial. Hence, I figured Noren’s ball-striking acumen would serve him well at Pinehurst No. 2.

I was wrong. Noren missed the cut, as he could not garner any momentum at the U.S. Open. But he has not played anywhere since then.

Now, Noren, who ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in overall strokes gained, will show up in Michigan well-rested and ready to go. He also plays well at Detroit Golf Club, recording a T-4 in 2021 and a T-9 in 2023, with six of those eight rounds being in the 60s.

Noren may not make many birdies, which could hinder his chances this week, but the 41-year-old Swede rarely makes mistakes—a much more critical factor. He ranks third on the PGA Tour in bogey avoidance and third in overall scrambling, two facets that help at any golf tournament.

So, give me Noren to win this week at +3000, as Sweden will have its first winner on the PGA Tour in 2024.

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Jack Milko is a golf staff writer for SB Nation’s Playing Through. Be sure to check out @_PlayingThrough for more golf coverage. You can follow him on Twitter @jack_milko as well.