Small Midwestern Cities Could Be Key to 2024 Elections — ProPublica

Twelve years ago, Sen. Sherrod Brown, the Ohio Democrat, took the stage at his election night party in Columbus to celebrate winning a second term. Barack Obama had just carried Ohio for the second time, after emphasizing his administration’s rescue of the auto industry. Brown wanted to proclaim that success onstage, but he was losing his voice, so his wife, the writer Connie Schultz, took over for him.

As she got to Jeep expanding its Toledo operations and General Motors building the Chevy Cruze at its rejuvenated plant near Youngstown, Brown started interjecting croaks to make sure she got the details right. “The aluminum is made in Cleveland … the transmission is made in Toledo … the engine is made in Defiance … the airbag is made in Brunswick.”

I thought about that moment often while on the campaign trail in Ohio this month. Brown is running for re-election again. But the political landscape is much changed. Ohio is no longer a presidential battleground. GM no longer makes the Cruze — the Lordstown plant where it was assembled closed in 2019. And Brown, who won his last two races by 5 and 7 points, is in a tight race against a car dealership magnate named Bernie Moreno.

Brown and a dwindling band of Democrats in Ohio are still making the case for a certain kind of Democratic Party — one that cares about the working class, that invests in their towns and factories and values the manufacturing jobs that power the nation. That case should have become easier to make of late. Over the past four years, the Biden administration has championed huge investments in renewable energy and computer chip production; two new Intel plants are under construction near Columbus. Yet the political landscape is tougher than ever for Brown and the last remaining Ohio Democrats.

There are several possible explanations. Sixty percent of Ohio residents have only a high school diploma, an associate degree or a few years of college — a relatively high percentage. Union membership has dwindled from its peak in 1989. And the Biden investments have taken a while to ramp up.

At a Brown rally outside an International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers hall in Dayton, the head of the local building trades council, David Cox, told me that his members were getting more work than they’d seen in 35 years. Then why, I asked, wasn’t this restoring support for Democrats among workers? “It takes a little while for these guys to wake up,” Cox said.

But Democrats often overlook another dynamic at play here, and that’s the role of place: Even if your own finances are secure, if you look out your window and see your city or town struggling, you believe you are, too. Some academics have referred to this as a sense of “shared fate,” and it could be a powerful force in this election, especially in small cities in the industrial Midwest — such as Reading and Erie in Pennsylvania, Saginaw and Battle Creek in Michigan, Oshkosh and Racine in Wisconsin — where Brown and other Democrats are fighting to hang on to their seats and where Kamala Harris needs to do well (or at least hold her own).

In 2007, the academic Lorlene Hoyt and the city planning consultant André Leroux assembled a nationwide list of “forgotten cities” that were old and small, with a population of 15,000 to 150,000 and a median household income of less than $35,000. Recently, the urban researcher Michael Bloomberg updated it. Of the 179 cities now on the list, 37 are in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. And leading the way, with 23 cities, is Ohio.

Pundits often overlook these sorts of places (they tend to focus on big blue cities, deep-red rural areas and the suburbs in between), but given how clustered these smaller cities are in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, they will matter greatly in the battle for both the White House and for control of Congress. Lately, two of Ohio’s have gained special prominence: Middletown (population 50,000) as the hometown of JD Vance, and Springfield (roughly 60,000) as home to a large community of Haitian immigrants that both Vance and Donald Trump have made a target of their rhetoric.

I have visited dozens of these cities. They often have handsome downtowns with stately central squares and ornate, century-old bank buildings that rise 10 or 12 stories, but it can be difficult to find a cup of coffee after 2 p.m. or a place to watch a ballgame on TV at night. The local news is full of the sort of items I found a few weeks ago in a newspaper in Lima, Ohio (population 35,000): a report that the area was getting its 12th Dollar General store and a letter to the editor lamenting the closure of a Dana Incorporated auto-parts plant with 280 jobs. Just as troubling, young people are becoming harder to find; they’re more drawn to thriving larger cities, such as Columbus, which has been vacuuming up strivers from across the state.

For decades, these smaller cities leaned Democratic, but in the past decade, they have turned redder. In 2012, Obama won Green Bay, Wisconsin, by nearly twice as large a margin as Joe Biden did in 2020; Obama won Saginaw by an extra 15 percentage points. Even in Biden’s hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania, Obama’s margin was more than 4,000 votes larger.

What’s so perplexing to liberals about this shift is that many of the people who left the Democratic Party are doing well for themselves; these cities are full of small-business owners, factory workers and retirees with pensions getting by under a Democratic president. But seeing your small city become a shadow of its former self can open you to a hard-edge populist message even if you yourself are managing. That’s what scholars mean by “shared fate,” and it’s what’s missed when we analyze voting behavior only by income or education level or race.

Rep. Marcy Kaptur — an Ohio Democrat who is a city planner by training and, after more than 40 years in office, the longest-serving woman in the history of Congress — understands this visceral reality. Her mother was a union organizer at a spark plug factory, and she has watched these wrenching changes play out from Toledo to the smaller cities she has represented, such as Sandusky and Lorain.

It’s rare to hear her talk up the social issues that often dominate debate on the left. Instead, she is most insistent about whether the nation’s industrial base can support its military, whether small cities have economic development expertise, whether workers at Toledo’s closed power plant can find new jobs. “I believe economics isn’t destiny, but it’s 85% of it,” she told me this month during a visit to a new Cleveland-Cliffs steel plant in Toledo.

For years, she has been struggling to get Democratic leaders to care about left-behind districts such as hers. In 2018, Hillary Clinton boasted that the areas she had carried in her 2016 loss produced two-thirds of the nation’s gross domestic product, as if votes from the economically thriving areas counted more. Two years earlier, Chuck Schumer, now Senate majority leader, declared, “For every blue-collar Democrat we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia. And you can repeat that in Ohio and Illinois and Wisconsin.”

This logic confounds Kaptur, who is now in a closely fought race with a state legislator, Derek Merrin. “A country can’t survive when vast segments of your population cannot get ahead,” she told me. Last year, to impress on party leaders how much ground Democrats are losing in districts like hers, her office produced a chart ranking the 435 House districts by median income. The moral: Democrats now represented most higher-income districts — in places like the Bay Area, the Northeast and metro Washington — while Republicans dominated in many lower-income ones. Her own district was 341st on the ranking, surrounded by red ones. “Washington has trouble seeing us,” she said. “They need binoculars.”

For Brown, the plight of these small cities is personal, because he’s from an archetypal one: Mansfield (population 48,000), which has lost a string of manufacturers. This month, the first person whom I met upon arriving at its central square was a woman asking for money. Brown’s father was a doctor, but as Brown often reminds voters, he went to school with the children of factory workers, a perspective that set him, like Kaptur, against trade deals such as NAFTA that many other Democrats supported.

“Politicians of both parties have done the bidding of wealthy corporations and sold the country out over and over and over again,” he said at a United Auto Workers hall in Toledo this month.

After the event, I asked him about the difficulties facing small cities. “Those cities were even more damaged than metropolitan areas because young people often tended to leave because there wasn’t the economic opportunity,” he said. “So I pay special attention to them.”

On the campaign trail, this means making more visits to the smaller cities than most other Democrats might. These cities also figure prominently in Brown’s stump rhetoric. “I grew up in Mansfield, Ohio, a town that looks a lot like Springfield, looks a lot like Zanesville, looks a lot like Hamilton or Middletown” is how Brown opened his remarks outside the union hall in Dayton, a city also on the updated “forgotten” list. After that event, he fell into an extended conversation with a new sort of small-city leader: one of the pioneers of the Haitian community in Springfield, who now owns five houses there and had come to Dayton to see Brown speak.

Without a doubt, Brown’s and Kaptur’s understanding of such places has helped them survive as long as they have as the state turned redder. It’s not as if their opponents have been offering these small cities many concrete solutions of their own. Far from it: Moreno’s ads center on his backing by Trump, and virtually all of the tens of millions of dollars in attack ads being run against Brown by outside groups focus on transgender youth.

There’s a painful irony in this for Democrats such as Brown and Kaptur. For years, they have been urging their party to pay more heed to these scattered outposts of their base: to Mansfield and Middletown, Springfield and Sandusky, all across their state and region. They were largely vindicated in their warnings about trade policy and political fallout, and a national Democratic response finally arrived in the past few years.

But in many places, demoralization had already spread so far, and local institutions had withered so much, that it became much easier for an opposition message based on nationwide culture-war appeals to register. Brown is as vulnerable now as he has ever been — running only 4 points ahead of Harris in the latest poll — and Kaptur’s race is just as competitive. This is doubly painful for them because they have largely skirted the culture-war front over the years, concentrating instead on economic issues.

Brown and Kaptur may well survive their latest challenges. But it’s hard to see how Democrats will revive their standing in Ohio — or enhance their prospects in the nearby swing states that remain more within their reach, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania — without helping these small cities revive, too. As Kaptur told me simply, sitting in her Toledo office overlooking the Maumee River: “They need to be seen.”