President Joe Biden has spent the past three weeks desperately trying to convince Democrats that he’s still got what it takes to win reelection. He’s campaigned more vigorously than he has in years, holding rallies, sitting for televised interviews, conducting an hour-long press conference, and pleading his case directly to members of Congress in phone calls and Zoom meetings.
It’s not working.
Opposition to his candidacy is mounting as lawmakers see more and more polls showing Donald Trump ahead in swing states and tied or leading in states that Biden won comfortably in 2020. A majority of Democrats in the House and the Senate now believe that the party should nominate someone else, Representative Seth Moulton of Massachusetts told me—an assessment that two other Democrats offered to me separately on the condition of anonymity. Several people told me that their doubts about Biden’s viability had only deepened in the weeks since the debate. And that was before the White House announced earlier this evening that the president had tested positive for COVID-19.
Moulton is one of 21 congressional Democrats—20 in the House and one in the Senate—who have publicly called on Biden to end his campaign following his dismal debate performance last month. “I haven’t seen anything from him or the campaign thus far that suggests they’re turning this around,” Moulton told me yesterday.
The attempted assassination of Trump on Saturday prompted some Democrats to hold off on coming out against Biden, multiple lawmakers and aides told me this week. But today, Representative Adam Schiff of California, a long-serving House Democrat running for the Senate, became the party’s most prominent elected official to call for Biden’s exit. Jonathan Karl of ABC News also reported that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told the president in a private conversation on Saturday that it would be better for the country if Biden abandoned his reelection bid. (A Schumer spokesperson dismissed the report as “idle speculation.”)
“The trends are still bleak, and getting bleaker,” Representative Mike Quigley, an Illinois Democrat who was one of the first to seek Biden’s withdrawal, told me. “Almost two-thirds of Americans think he lacks the acuity to do this, and there’s almost nothing he can do to change their minds. It just looks like he’s trying very hard, which is hard to watch.”
These Democrats are running out of time, and they have no clear plan to replace Biden, who has insisted that he won’t drop out unless “the Lord Almighty” tells him to. They secured a minor victory today when the Democratic National Convention agreed to hold its “virtual roll call” to nominate Biden no earlier than August 1. Those in the replace-Biden camp insist, however, that he shouldn’t be nominated until the party’s convention, which begins on August 19.
The DNC had initially announced plans to nominate Biden before the convention as a way of ensuring that he would appear on the ballot in Ohio, which had an early ballot deadline. In May, the state’s legislature pushed back the deadline, but the DNC is sticking with its plan, angering many Democrats.
“That is perilous,” Representative Gerry Connolly of Virginia, a Democrat who has not called for Biden to step aside, told me today. Such a move to cut off debate over Biden’s candidacy, he said, “would further depress enthusiasm and energy in the party, which we can ill afford right now.” (The DNC says that Republicans could challenge Biden’s place on the ballot if the party doesn’t nominate him early.)
Connolly said that he had been planning to sign a widely circulated letter protesting the DNC’s plans, until Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries intervened to broker a temporary compromise with the DNC. The two leaders agreed “that an expedited timeline for the virtual roll call would not be prudent,” according to a person familiar with their conversation, who described their call on the condition of anonymity.
Biden still has his share of supporters. His strongest post-debate backing has come from left-leaning lawmakers with whom he has occasionally sparred as president. Progressives such as Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York are standing by him, as are many members of the Congressional Black Caucus.
“For me, there’s no debate,” Representative Haley Stevens of Michigan told me today, arguing that Biden remains the Democrat with the best chance to win. She warned about the risk of switching candidates after so much money has been spent to build a campaign around Biden in Michigan and other key states. “What does that look like? How do we operationally re-create a new campaign?” she asked. “Sometimes it looks too good. It looks too easy. Sometimes it looks like the grass is always greener on the other side.”
Stevens said that Biden has won back some of her Democratic constituents with his campaign stops in recent weeks. Several voters who had called immediately after the debate to express their doubts about Biden, Stevens said, had since called back with a different message: I am sorry that I got so nervous and negative. I really appreciate your positivity.
The elected Democrats who want Biden to drop out describe no such conversions. Still, many remain torn about what to do. Their pressure campaign has yet to move the president, and some lawmakers worry that the criticism he’s received from Democrats will ultimately hurt the party. “I’m not going to, at least at this juncture, create clips for the Republicans to use in the fall,” one House Democrat, who wants Biden out but has yet to go public, told me.
For some, the choice is personal, even wrenching. Biden gave Connolly, who is now 74 and serving his eighth House term, his first job on Capitol Hill. Connolly worked for Biden on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for a decade, writing speeches, drafting bills, shuttling with him between Delaware and Washington. “I’m not going to take a 45-year relationship and treat it like it doesn’t matter. It does matter,” Connolly told me, explaining why, despite his doubts about Biden’s chances, he would not call for him to step aside.
“There are a lot of people, including me, that are worried for him,” he said. “You’re asking somebody who’s clearly experiencing the fallout from aging to undertake a very rigorous assignment that has taken a toll on much younger, more robust individuals who preceded him.”
Biden had hoped that the debate over his viability would be over by now. Early last week, momentum within the party seemed to be swinging in his favor, only for former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi to restart the conversation by suggesting that Biden’s decision to stay in the race was not final, despite his claims to the contrary. Then the shooting of Trump quieted the fervor again. But it is now rising once more. I asked Connolly whether he thought Biden would wind up the party’s nominee after all. “I believe,” he replied, “that question has not been resolved.”
