Tour de France Favourites for 2024: For the last three years, the Tour de France has been a battle between Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, but this year we have a four-corner fight with the addition of Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel. Which of the BIG Four will come out on top? Or is there someone waiting in the wings ready to spring a surprise? We look at the favourites, the possibles and the outsiders.
# You can see the ‘PEZ 2024 Tour Route Preview’ HERE. #
Roglič. Vingegaard and Pogačar (plus Evenepoel) should make for a lively Tour
The 2024 Tour de France winner will have to have his climbing legs. This year’s French Grand Tour has definitely been designed for the mountain goats. There are also 59 kilometres of time trial, with the final stage to Nice covering 34 hilly kilometres. Then there is stage 9 with gravel sections on the roads around Troyes, which could upset the apple cart and time could be lost. Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel are by far the top favourites for this year’s Tour de France. The time trials could make a difference, Evenepoel is the World champion after all, but a race against the clock after three weeks is different from a well planned one-day event. The Belgian will have to use the TT, because the Alpine style climbs are an unknown, especially up against the three ‘old war-hoses. Vingegaard is probably the strongest climber, but there is a question mark over his form, fitness and health after his crash in the Basque Country.
Can Jonas Vingegaard be 100%?
Pogačar will test the Dane in the first, difficult days in Italy and crossing over to France. The Slovenian dominated the Giro d’Italia, he won’t have the same luxury in the Tour. Although he didn’t look tired after the Italian GT, there could be some wear by the final week. Roglič has had his crashes this season, but looks to be over that, but there is alway the question of him staying upright for three weeks. He will follow the other three and wait for any chinks in their armour.
The 2024 Tour de France
Tadej Pogačar (UAE Team Emirates)
The Slovenian is going for the Giro/Tour double this year. The last rider to succeed in this task was Marco Pantani, in 1998. When Pogačar announced that he would ride both Grand Tours, to win, in 2024, there was some skepticism, but that was before he dominated the Giro and the crashes and injuries to his main three competitors. With the Giro firmly in his pocket, he has to be the top favourite for the Tour. In the Giro, Pogačar didn’t have much competition, took the pink jersey after the second stage and if it hadn’t have been for Jhonatan Narváez, he would have led from beginning to end. The UAE Team Emirates rider won six stages and by the time he got to Rome he had a near 10 minute lead over second placed Daniel Felipe Martínez. At no point did Pogačar look to be in trouble didn’t have to use too many of his reserves and should be rested and fresh for the Grand Départ in Florence.
There wasn’t much competition for Pogačar in the Giro
In June, Pogačar was on an altitude training camp in Isola 2000, but had to leave three days early due to the death of his grandfather, but his Tour preparation has gone the way he and the team planned. Remco Evenepoel, Primož Roglič and Jonas Vingegaard all crashed in the Tour of the Basque Country, where Vingegaard came off the worst. Pogačar would want to compete against a fully fit Vingegaard, so there would be no doubts later. There is nothing anyone can do about that now and the Visma team say the Dane is good to race, so…. Pogačar also has a very strong team. UAE Team Emirates has been criticised in previous years of not being able to help their leader, that can’t be said this year. Pogačar has Adam Yates, who just won the Tour de Suisse and was 3rd in the 2023 Tour, João Almeida, second in the Tour de Suisse and Juan Ayuso, the winner of the Itzulia Basque Country and second in Tirreno-Adriatio. Plus strong mountain workers: Pavel Sivakov and Marc Soler and Tim Wellens and Nils Politt for the flat stages.
Can Pogačar take yellow for the third time and add to his pink for 2024?
Jonas Vingegaard (Visma | Lease a Bike)
Pogačar had a very successful spring, but Jonas Vingegaard wasn’t just sitting around waiting to crash in the Basque Country, he won the O Gran Camiño and Tirreno-Adriatico with a good show of strength. Then he crashed in the north of Spain. Vingegaard was one of the worst victims of the big crash on stage four and suffered a broken collarbone, seven broken ribs, a lung contusion and a collapsed lung and he was kept in hospital for twelve days. It took him only three weeks to start training again. On May the 7th he was training on the road, then went to Mallorca, before an altitude camp in Tignes. On June the 20th the Visma team announced that Vingegaard would start the Tour. “We don’t know yet how far he can go,” said Visma | Lease a Bike sports director, Merijn Zeeman.“We are careful, because Jonas has not yet raced after his crash. His preparation has been far from ideal, to say the least. But he will be there, healthy and motivated.”
The crash in the Itzulia Basque Country – It could have been worse for Vingegaard
No body knows what condition Vingegaard will be in at the Tour. But Visma | Lease a Bike wouldn’t include him if they thought he had no chance of winning, or at least getting on the final podium. Vingegaard is double winner of the Tour and even though the first stages are going to be hard, the final week will decide the Tour. The Dane should be able to ride himself into form as the race goes on. His Visma team is also strong A recovered Wout van Aert, Christophe Laporte and Jan Tratnik. We now know that Sepp Kuss will not be riding, but Wilco Kelderman, Matteo Jorgenson and the replacement for Kuss, Bart Lemmen, will back him up.
It might be an uphill battle for the Dane
Primož Roglič (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe)
Primož Roglič didn’t ride the 2023 Tour de France, the Slovenian concentrated on winning the Giro d’Italia and coming third in la Vuelta a España, behind his teammates Kuss and Vingegaard, but now he has a new team and is throwing everything at the Tour. He does that for a new team. He changed team to be the leader with BORA-hansgrohe, to be known as Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe from the end of this week. In Paris-Nice, his first race with BORA-hansgrohe, Roglič was still settling in. In the Itzulia Basque Country he won the stage 1 time trial. But due to two crashes, the second one with Vingegaard and Evenepoel, he abandoned wearing the yellow. There were no breaks but he had a lot of skin abrasions.
Roglič hasn’t lost his attack
While Jonas Vingegaard and Remco Evenepoel recovered from their broken bones, Tadej Pogačar prepared for the Giro d’Italia, but Roglič had started his preparation in plenty time for the Tour. This could also be his last chance of Tour victory. In the Critérium du Dauphiné, Roglič showed that he can still win, although things did not go well on the final day as he lost a lot of time on the mountain stage to Plateau des Glières to Carlos Rodríguez, Matteo Jorgenson and Derek Gee. Roglič will be helped by Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley, both of whom are winner themselves.
Roglič back in yellow?
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal Quick-Step)
Roglič cracked on the final day of the Critérium du Dauphiné, but Remco Evenepoel was in trouble well before the Slovenian. The 24-year-old Belgian had taken the yellow jersey on stage four with an impressive ride in the time trial, but on the climbs he didn’t have it so easy. He lost his leader’s jersey going to Le Collet d’Allevard and couldn’t stay with the top climbers. The Dauphiné was only his first race back after his crash in the Itzulia Basque Country, where he broke his collarbone and shoulder blade. The Belgian had to let go on the climbs, but he usually managed to limit his losses, especially in the last mountain stage. There are three weeks between the Dauphiné and the Tour for him to find his top form and to lose some weight, as he said himself, he had some work to do in that department. Evenepoel doesn’t have to win all the mountain stages to be the final victor of the Tour, but he has to stay close to the other leaders and make the most of his time trial ability. Over the 59 kilometres against the clock, Evenepoel can take time on everyone in the TT’s and there are also some hilly stages, not full mountains, where Evenepoel can more than hold his own. The gravel stage around Troyes will not be to his liking.
Evenepoel will have to make the most of his TT ability
Carlos Rodríguez (INEOS Grenadiers)
While everyone will be looking at ‘the BIG four’: Tadej Pogačar, Jonas Vingegaard, Primož Roglič and Remco Evenepoel, there are others we need to watch in the 2024 Tour de France: Carlos Rodríguez is one of them. The INEOS Grenadiers Spaniard was fifth in the Tour de France last year and won the stage to Morzine, over the Joux Plane. Rodríguez is not a rider that you first think of as a leader, but he does win races. The 23-year-old has won seven times with the professionals. He is a solid rider in the mountains and has a good time trial. Rodríguez finished second in the Itzulia Basque Country, won the Tour de Romandie and was fourth in the Critérium du Dauphiné and won the final stage.
Carlos Rodríguez – A man to watch
Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)
Adam Yates won the Tour de Suisse and in the Tour de France, the 31-year-old will be Pogačar’s right hand man. If anything was to go wrong for the Slovenian leader, then Yates would be UAE Team Emirates leader, he was third in last year’s Tour. The British rider had won smaller stage races, but to finish on the podium in a Grand Tour, along with his fourth place in the 2017 Tour and in the 2021 Vuelta shows he has what it takes. This year his chances are probably lower due there being more time trial kilometres, but does have the advantage of João Almeida and Juan Ayuso doing more work on the climbs for Pogačar.
Adam Yates and Almeida might do more than just lead for Pogačar
Joao Almeida (UAE Team Emirates)
As already mentioned, João Almeida is another great worker for Pogačar. He was quiet in the spring, but in the Tour de Suisse he showed he was willing to work for a leader (Adam Yates) and still finish high on the GC. In fact he finished second overall behind Yates, but there were times when he looked stronger than his teammate. He won two stages: the Summit finish in Blatten and the final mountain time trial to Villars-sur-Ollon. Like Yates, Almeida will be working for Pogačar, but you never know what can happen. UAE Team Emirates are all for Pogačar, but as with Yates, Almeida might have to step up if his leader has a big GC problem.
Joao Almeida will be working for a Pogačar win, but…
Enric Mas (Movistar)
Enric Mas has had a not bad build up to the 2024 Tour: 4th in the Tour of Catalonia, 6th in the Tour de Romandie and 7th in the Tour de Suisse. But, Enric Mas being Enric Mas, he will probably be fairly invisible at the Tour, although he can ride well in a Grand Tour. Mas has started eleven Grand Tours and finished nine. When he rode his first Vuelta 2017, he finished 72nd and his first Tour in 2019 he was 22nd, but in all his other Grand Tours he finished in the top six, second in the Vuelta three times. He didn’t finish his last two Tours: in 2022 he caught covid and last year he crashed out on the first day. Mas will want to perform well at the Tour, as he always does, but he wont win. A top-5 finish is possible.
Enric Mas will have to step out of the shadows
Simon Yates (Jayco AlUla)
Simon Yates is a Grand Tour winner, he did take the 2018 Vuelta a España, third in the 2021 Giro d’Italia and was fourth last year in the Tour. The problem for the other Yates twin is that he can be erratic, but if all goes well he can succeed. This year has not been great so far. After a final 7th place in the TDU, he won the AlUla Tour in February, the short tour in the resort of his team’s sponsor. After that he finished the Volta a Catalunya, Liège-Bastogne-Liège and the Tour de Romandie without distinction. He has been preparing for the Tour since Romandia and will be fresh at the start in Florence. Yates will go to Visma | Lease a Bike in 2025, so he will be wanting to perform
Simon Yates is a Grand Tour winner
Richard Carapaz (EF Education-EasyPost)
Richard Carapaz can also be a bit up and down, one day good, one day bad, which isn’t ideal in a three week race. But the Olympic road champion is the EF Education-EasyPost team leader. Last year he needed surgery on his tonsils and suffered a fractured kneecap when he crashed out of the Tour. Carapaz has been on Grand Tour podiums in the past: In 2022 he was second in the Giro. 2021, third in the Tour. 2020, second in the Vuelta and in 2019 he won the Giro. Carapaz crashed in the Tour de Suisse and suffered a bad face injury, but will be in Florence hoping for some consistency.
Carapaz can be a danger… sometimes
Who else:
There are other riders who could surprise us, Egan Bernal, the winner of the 2019 Tour de France is one of them. The Colombian has been showing some of his previous ability after his training crash. This year he took third place in O Gran Camiño and the Tour of Catalunya and fourth in the Tour de Suisse. Is the old Bernal back?
Bernal has shown some of his old class
INEOS Grenadiers has Rodríguez and Bernal, but they also have Geraint Thomas, who rode the Giro d’Italia, plus Tom Pidcock. The 24-year-old wants to do better than his thirteenth place last year. Pidcock has been riding well in mountain bike races, hoping keep his MTB Olympic title. On the road he recently finished sixth in the Tour de Suisse, well behind Bernal.
Pidcock – Maybe not a GC man
Soudal Quick-Step is all about Remco Evenepoel and Mikel Landa was contracted by Patrick Lefevere to help the Belgian, but the Spaniard was fourth in the Tour in 2017 and 2020, he could the ‘Plan B’. Visma | Lease a Bike also has Matteo Jorgenson, who was second in the Critérium du Dauphiné. If Vingegaard isn’t fit, then the young American could be the team’s saviour.
Landa could be Soudal Quick-Step’s ‘Plan B’
Aleksandr Vlasov and Jai Hindley (Red Bull-BORA-hansgrohe) are in the Tour to work for Primož Roglič. Vlasov has been having a good season so far and sacrificed himself for Roglič in the Dauphiné and finished sixth in the final GC. He was also second in the Tour de Romandie, fourth in the Tour of Catalunya and fifth in Paris-Nice, all top results. The Russian also has ambitions of his own and maybe Roglič also has to keep an eye on him.
Vlasov needs to be watched
David Gaudu is maybe the home nations big/only hope in the Tour. The Frenchman of Groupama-FDJ has not shown his best form this season. In 2022 he finished fourth in the Tour and is confident that he can be on the podium in Nice. “Honestly, my biggest dream is to win, but I have to be realistic. That will be very, very difficult. The podium is more feasible, although that will also be very difficult,” he said recently to L’Équipe. Gaudu does have the problem that he tested positive for covid, just before the French road championship.
The French hope – David Gaudu
Who are our favourites:
Top: Tadej Pogačar
Probable: Jonas Vingegaard & Primož Roglič
Possible: Remco Evenepoel, Carlos Rodríguez & Adam Yates.
Maybe: João Almeida, Richard Carapaz, Simon Yates amp; Enric Mas.
My personal prediction: Tadej Pogačar will put his team on the front on the first stage and make it as hard as they can. The Slovenian will win the stage and take the yellow jersey. From then on his team will, using a phrase from football (soccer), ‘park the bus’ and defend all the way to the finish in Nice. I’m probably wrong and hope I am, but it would be the way to win.
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2024 Tour de France Teaser
# Thanks to ProCyclingStats and WielerFlits for facts and figures. #
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